Best Defense

Thomas E. Ricks' daily take on national security.

What’s up up with Abdullah Abdullah?

As predicted (at the end of the post) in this blog on Friday, old Abdullah Abdullah is threatening to pull out of the Afghan run-up. Here is a comment from my friend Mac McCallister, who has spent a lot of time on the ground in dangerous places recent years: My prediction… He won’t [pull out]… ...

As predicted (at the end of the post) in this blog on Friday, old Abdullah Abdullah is threatening to pull out of the Afghan run-up.

As predicted (at the end of the post) in this blog on Friday, old Abdullah Abdullah is threatening to pull out of the Afghan run-up.

Here is a comment from my friend Mac McCallister, who has spent a lot of time on the ground in dangerous places recent years:

My prediction… He won’t [pull out]… He is only maneuvering for a better deal… more access to spoils.

We have helped create this situation… and may actually still be manipulating the process. We have weakened Karzai by calling him out… (blood in the water).  We have strengthened Abdullah Abdullah with hagiographic fawning in the popular press… Karzai needs us more than ever becasue we have explained in no uncertain terms that we can always change horses.

Abdullah Abdullah’s faction is now taking advantage of the situation to gain at the expense of his rival… "Never let a good crisis go to waste"… Abdullah Abdulah can not allow this power play to get out of control… and he will therefore manage the "crisis" accordingly. He can’t rule A-stan and he knows it.. Abdullah Abdullah now needs us more than ever..

Win-win for the U.S.  My compliments to Sec of State Mrs Clinton and her strategists.

The Pashtun Karzai is still the front-man in this charade… In the meantime all will send delegates to Abdullah Abdullah to talk him off the ledge… The negotiations to keep Abdullah Abdullah in the game will be interpreted by all that Abdullah Abdullah has both credibility and legitimacy. In the end.. Abdullah Abdullah’s faction will be offered a greater share of the spoils… Karzai will be President… and the government will continue to frustrate the hell out of us.

Or maybe not…  

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military from 1991 to 2008 for the Wall Street Journal and then the Washington Post. He can be reached at ricksblogcomment@gmail.com. Twitter: @tomricks1

More from Foreign Policy

Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.
Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.

Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America

The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.

Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.
Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.

The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense

If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.

Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.

Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War

Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.

An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.
An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.

How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests

And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.