China’s Car Bomb
China is in the fast lane to becoming the dominant automobile market of the 21st century. Economists predict that by 2025, the size of the Chinese auto industry will rival that of North America. But with Chinese urban pollution already at nightmarish levels, will the country’s commuters end up driving an environmental car bomb? Recent ...
China is in the fast lane to becoming the dominant automobile market of the 21st century. Economists predict that by 2025, the size of the Chinese auto industry will rival that of North America. But with Chinese urban pollution already at nightmarish levels, will the country's commuters end up driving an environmental car bomb?
China is in the fast lane to becoming the dominant automobile market of the 21st century. Economists predict that by 2025, the size of the Chinese auto industry will rival that of North America. But with Chinese urban pollution already at nightmarish levels, will the country’s commuters end up driving an environmental car bomb?
Recent trends confirm the sector’s rapid growth. During the first half of 2002, car sales in Beijing jumped by more than 19 percent over the same period last year, with new car sales registering a 30 percent increase, according to a June 2002 study conducted by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics. Tax rebates have boosted demand, and manufacturers are slashing prices to fight foreign competition. But foreign automakers are determined to get their share: General Motors has invested around $1.5 billion in a Chinese joint venture. (The last emperor’s first car was a Buick, as was Communist leader Zhou Enlai’s limousine.) Today, Volkswagen accounts for 55 percent of Chinese auto sales, and Jeep has become the second-most recognized foreign brand in China, after Coca-Cola and in front of Head & Shoulders. As a result of China’s 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization, automobile tariffs will fall from the traditional 80 to 100 percent to 25 percent by 2006.
The road ahead may look good for auto executives and for Chinese authorities, who have set the explicit goal of one vehicle for every family. But according to the "2002 China Development Report,” produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the United Nations Development Programme, Chinese decision makers seem fascinated with cars "as symbols of modernisation," with little concern for environmental fallout. Air pollution levels in China are already some of the highest ever recorded, and the World Bank reports that China contains 16 of the planet’s 20 most polluted cities. In many such areas, vehicle emissions are surpassing coal burning as the main source of air pollution, but most cities do not actively enforce even basic emission standards. And heavy traffic congestion dramatically increases pollution discharges. Just ask Beijing traffic cops. But you’d better hurry — their life expectancy is now calculated at roughly 40 years.
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