5 things Obama must do this week

Barack Obama’s got a tough job Tuesday, when the U.S. president lays out his new Afghanistan strategy (and likely a significant troop increase) in a primetime address at West Point. He’s got to convince skeptical doves that escalation is worth the cost. He’s got to convince nervous hawks that he knows what he’s doing. And he’s got to persuade everyone that Afghanistan is not simply Vietnam with more turbans.

So what’s he going to say? I don’t know, but here’s what I think he has to do to be successful.

1. Explain the stakes

Why are we in Afghanistan? Obama has clearly said that the answer is to fight al Qaeda. First and foremost, he needs to make a strong case that al Qaeda* will kill more Americans if the United States doesn’t send more troops to the region now. More abstract reasons to be in Afghanistan like protecting Afghan women from the Taliban are fine but they can’t be the crux of the argument; most Americans aren’t interested in spending another $30 billion a year merely to fight the burqa. Calls to “finish the job we started after 9/11” will have greater universal appeal: Everyone wants to see Osama dead.

2. Set expectations low…

I would be surprised if, given what we’ve seen from Obama thus far, he makes Peter Feaver happy by declaring his aim to be “victory” in Afghanistan. He’s too cautious a man for that. But he’ll probably lay out some objectives like bolstering the Afghan army and training more police, while wrapping them in some kind overall goal such as “sustainable security.” The important thing here is to promise nothing that he doesn’t think he can deliver, or those words will come back to haunt him later. (And yes, avoiding familiar slogans like “we’ll stand down as the Afghans stand up” is a good idea.)

3. … But not too low

Pundits and members of congress like to talk about the need for an “exit strategy.” But it’s not a term Obama should use. People don’t like the idea of their sons and daughters laying their lives on the line for what sounds like a fancy way of saying “defeat.” Obama has to lay out some vision of success that is worth fighting for; otherwise, America might as well just go home. Equally important, Afghans will be watching the president carefully Tuesday night, and any hint that he’s decided to pack it in is going to help drive fence-sitters into the arms of the Taliban. Afghans are survivors, and, like all people in war zones they tend to back the side that seems to be winning.

4. Take responsibility

During his first few months in office, Obama was quick to point out at every opportunity that George W. Bush screwed up the world and that therefore it’s not his fault that things are so bad. Well, George W. Bush isn’t the president anymore. It’s time for Barack to stop blaming the other guy and explain how he’s going to fix the situation. (And no, setting Gen. Stanley McChrystal up as the fall guy if things go wrong doesn’t count.)

5. Deal with the Karzai question

Americans don’t like feeling used, and they’re not happy about having to prop up an Afghan president in Kabul who is widely seen as corrupt, vacillating, and illegitimate. There’s bound to be some carefully phrased tough talk about Karzai, but personally, I’m going to be looking for signals that the new strategy is more about bypassing him than it is about trying to get him to change his stripes. Afghanistan has never had a strong central government, and I see no reason to believe the United States can magically will one into existence. Obama’s got to indicate that he has a workaround for the waffler of Kabul, or else we’re in big trouble.

*: It’s OK if the prez fudges a little bit about what he means by “al Qaeda” vs. “al Qaeda and affiliated militants.” Wonks might complain, but it’s probably best not to confuse the public too much by getting into the nuances, and being too specific about who the enemy is might constrain U.S. options down the road.

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