Daily brief: no firm plans for Afghan withdrawal, say Obama advisers

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Afghanistan hearings on Capitol Hill, Gen. Stanley McChrystal and Amb. Karl Eikenberry*
Tuesday 9:30am, House Armed Services Committee (HASC)
Tuesday 1:30pm, Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC)
Wednesday 10:00am, Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC)
Thursday 9:30am, House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFA)

Behind the scenes

The New York Times and the Washington Post have a pair of lengthy must-read articles from this weekend detailing the behind the scenes action of U.S. President Barack Obama’s decision process on sending more troops to Afghanistan, both showing a metamorphosis in the president’s thinking over the course of the three month strategy review (NYT, Wash Post). Politico’s Mike Allen has the inside look at the making of the articles, giving the White House a "mission accomplished grade" for "amplifying the West Wing’s desired storyline: a smart, probing president cuts through the fog of competing visions to come up with his own unique version of a surge" (Politico).

Meanwhile, Operation Cobra’s Anger continues in the strategically significant Now Zad valley in northern Helmand province in Afghanistan, as more than 1,000 British, American, and Afghan troops seek to disrupt Taliban communication routes and supply lines (AFP, Reuters, NYT, McClatchy). The current offensive, which is one of 22 similar operations being carried out across the country according to a military spokesman, may be a precursor to a larger assault against the Taliban sanctuary town of Marja, which has been compared to the Iraqi town of Fallujah circa late 2004 (AP, LAT).

The U.K. probably will not send any more troops to Afghanistan on top of its announced increase of approximately 1,200 extra soldiers, of which only 500 have yet to deploy (WSJ). British troops are considered particularly valuable by the U.S. because they fight in Helmand. Meanwhile, Afghan police killed a local Taliban commander in Afghanistan’s northern Faryab province over the weekend, while NATO pounded a Taliban stronghold in the eastern Afghan province of Kunar earlier today (AP, AFP).

And the U.S. is reportedly leaving some equipment in Iraq that could be useful in Afghanistan, though in some cases the labor and transportation costs outweigh the costs of the equipment (Wash Post). Meanwhile, comparisons between Iraq and Afghanistan remain rife, though one of the strategists "deeply involved" in the White House’s Afghanistan debate remarked, "We spent a lot of time discussing the fact that the only thing Iraq and Afghanistan have in common is a lot of sand" (NYT).

The talk show circuit

A slew of Obama’s national security advisers hit the Sunday talk show circuit yesterday; many of the transcripts are available here.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Meet the Press (NBC); Clinton and Gates, This Week (ABC); Clinton and Gates, Face the Nation (CBS); National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones, State of the Union (CNN); Amb. Richard Holbrooke, Fareed Zakaria GPS (CNN); Gen. David Petraeus, Fox News Sunday (Fox).

The main takeaway from the host of interviews is that Obama’s stated timeline of beginning a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in July 2011 is a "ramp," not a "cliff," as General Jones commented, and the U.S. should expect to maintain a presence in Afghanistan for two to four more years, according to Gates (NYT, CNN, BBC, Guardian, NYT, AP, WSJ). And Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, has seen his plan remain mainly intact, as a senior Pentagon official involved in Afghanistan policy told the Washington Post, "There won’t be a radical change in the way he executes" (Wash Post).

A topic that has gotten more traction lately is the hunt for Osama bin Laden; Gates told ‘This Week’ that it has been "years" since the U.S. has had good intelligence on the terrorist leader’s location, and General Jones said, "The best estimate is that he is somewhere inside North Waziristan, sometimes on the Pakistani side of the border, sometimes on the Afghan side of the border" (Telegraph, AFP, AP). The U.S. will be launching a new effort to track down bin Laden, according to a senior U.S. government official (AFP).

Corruption and cabinets

Afghan President Hamid Karzai is set to announce at least part of his cabinet of ministers tomorrow for the approval of the Afghan parliament, as he faces massive pressure to clamp down on corruption in his government (AFP, Reuters). Christiane Amanpour of CNN interviewed Karzai yesterday, and he called the issue of corruption "overplayed," though he did say he "will be firing people" (CNN). The governor of Balkh province, Atta Muhammad Noor, who is known to be opposed to Karzai, has reportedly rejected an offer to participate in the president’s cabinet and would like to stay on as governor (Pajhwok). And the mayor of Kabul City, Mir Abdul Ahad Sahibi, has been sentenced to four years in jail and fined on corruption charges, though he plans to appeal (Pajhwok).

A human rights group just released a report saying that Afghan women are among the worst off in the world, calling violence against them "endemic," based on 120 interviews across different Afghan provinces, and warning that conditions "could deteriorate" (Reuters, Guardian). The full report is available from Human Rights Watch (HRW).

Politics and war in Pakistan

As Pakistan’s Supreme Court starts hearing arguments that could invalidate a corruption amnesty for embattled Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, a suicide bomber struck outside a courthouse in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar, killing at least 11 in the frequently-targeted capital of the Northwest Frontier Province (AFP, AP, Dawn, Geo TV, CNN). The hearings could lead to challenges to the legality of the increasingly unpopular Zardari’s rule, though he currently has immunity from prosecution as the sitting president (AP, Dawn).

The Pakistani Taliban have claimed responsibility for last Friday’s coordinated attacks on a mosque in Rawalpindi, saying they "will do more which are already planned," and Pakistani police reportedly picked up at least six people in relation to the assault, which left around 40 people dead (CNN, Dawn). Pakistani police also arrested five suspects believed to be involved with the recent spate of bombing attacks in Peshawar, following a gunbattle that lasted more than two hours (AP).

And elsewhere over the weekend, a roadside bomb outside a mosque in the tribal region of Bajaur left two anti-Taliban tribal elders dead, further demonstrating the threat to those who opposed the militant group (Dawn, Daily Times, AP). However, Pakistan’s interior minister Rehman Malik praised some of Pakistan’s tribes on the border for assisting the anti-Taliban offensive currently underway in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Bloomberg).

The Pakistani version of the FBI has a new chief, announced over the weekend, as the outgoing head of the Federal Investigation Agency, Tariq Khosa, has been promoted to the Ministry of Narcotics (The News, Dawn, Daily Times). Zaffarullah Khan, former commander of Pakistan’s Frontier Corps, is the FIA’s new director general.

Inside of your head

Sabrina Tavernise talked to some of Pakistan’s top psychiatrists to try and understand the deep and intense anti-Americanism felt by many Pakistanis, and one commented in a harsh tone but not an uncommon sentiment, "The real terrorists are not the men in turbans we see on Al Jazeera… They are wearing Gucci suits and Brit hats. It’s your great country, Madam" (NYT). And Scott Shane looks at the Pashtun aspect of the Taliban insurgency (NYT).

Grazie, Italia

Italy has donated $1.2 million to upgrade facilities at the western Afghan province of Herat’s main hospital (Pajhwok). The funding will provide for heating in a pediatric unit, among other improvements.

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*This list is not necessarily comprehensive.