Are there any foreign policy implications of a special election?
Everyone inside the Beltway is preparing their 500 words on what the results in the Massachusetts special Senate election will mean for Barack Obama’s domestic policy agenda. It’s worth speculating for a moment, however, about the implications of this election for Obama’s foreign policy agenda. What would a Republican victory signal to the rest of ...
Everyone inside the Beltway is preparing their 500 words on what the results in the Massachusetts special Senate election will mean for Barack Obama's domestic policy agenda. It's worth speculating for a moment, however, about the implications of this election for Obama's foreign policy agenda. What would a Republican victory signal to the rest of the world? How would the rest of the world's policymakers react?
Everyone inside the Beltway is preparing their 500 words on what the results in the Massachusetts special Senate election will mean for Barack Obama’s domestic policy agenda. It’s worth speculating for a moment, however, about the implications of this election for Obama’s foreign policy agenda. What would a Republican victory signal to the rest of the world? How would the rest of the world’s policymakers react?
The first and simplest answer would be that there would be no effect. It’s just a single Senate election. Furthermore, one could argue that, on foreign policy, GOP hopeful Scott Brown is actually closer to Barack Obama than Martha Coakley. Brown supports Obama’s Afghanistan plan — Coakley opposes it. This election hasn’t really been about foreign policy. Surely, then, a GOP upset wouldn’t have much impact on the realm of international relations.
Not so fast, however. The election will also be interpreted as a signal of Obama’s domestic political strength. Unless the numbers are way off, the Republicans will do much better tonight than anyone expected even two weeks ago. Foreign leaders — particularly those from countries not terribly well-schooled in electoral politics — will undoubtedly interpret that as a sign of:
1) Obama’s domestic weakness; and
2) The depths of populist outrage in the United States — populist outrage that could bleed over into increased protectionism, isolationism, or "kill them all and let God sort them out" provocation on the foreign policy front.
Soooo….. how they respond to this information depends on many factors. If they prefer Obama and his foreign policies to the GOP (cough, Europe, cough), then they might prove to be more accommodating to U.S. positions. If they like the results from a United States foreign policy that is more hawkish (cough, Iran and Venezuela, cough), then they might amp up their belligerence to make Obama look weak and hamstrung.
The one sure effect of the election is that it will throw a monkey wrench into international negotiations that require legislative approval. Unless Obama can secure bipartisan support for, say, a replacement to Start II, other countries’ negotiators are going to wonder why they should bother with the transaction costs of negotiation.
Am I missing anything?
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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