U.S. intelligence briefing: Taliban increasingly effective

A December 22 briefing, prepared by the top U.S. intelligence official in Afghanistan and obtained by CNN, maps out the strategy and strength of the Taliban and their allies in Afghanistan, and concludes that the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is increasingly effective.

The briefing, which warns that the "situation is serious," was prepared by Maj. Gen. Michael Flynn last month. His assessment is that the Taliban’s "organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding" and the group is capable of much greater frequency of attacks and varied locations of attacks.

According to the unclassified briefing, the insurgency can now sustain itself indefinitely because of three factors:

• The increased availability of bomb-making technology and material;
• The Taliban’s access to two major funding streams, one from the opium trade and the other from overseas donations from Muslim countries, which reach the Taliban by courier or through a system of informal banks known as "hawalas" that operate across much of the Islamic world; and
• The Taliban’s continuing ability to recruit foot soldiers based on the perception that they "retain the religious high-ground," and factors such as poverty and tribal friction.

A chart in Flynn’s briefing notes that security incidents — which include improvised-explosive attacks, ambushes, mortar and missile assaults — routinely hit 500 a week in the second half of 2009. That compares with a weekly average of no more than 40 five years ago. Even in the generally slower winter fighting season, incidents have not fallen below 300 a week.

To read the rest, visit CNN.com, where this was originally published.

Peter Bergen is the editor of the AfPak Channel, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, and a national security analyst for CNN.