From Davos: Is indecisiveness and scandal crippling Japan?

Dubai may be a no show, but Japan’s here and not doing much. General thoughts from my conversations here:

1) The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) doesn’t look like it’s going to win a clear majority in upper house elections this summer. A precipitous change of events from a few months ago … but indecisiveness and scandal has crippled Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama, who was on the Davos programme, but cancelled last minute. Hmm. 

2) DJP kingmaker Ozawa is locked in a battle to the death with independent prosecutors.  consensus Japanese view in Davos: a) Circumstantial evidence shows Ozawa’s guilty as sin; b) Prosecutors are operating above the law, with no countervailing force to stop them, and the Japanese media is out of control; c) Careers are at stake for both sides, with no backing down. Surprisingly enough, there’s a growing belief that Ozawa is forced out. But the timeline (weeks, months, or more) is completely unclear. More hmm.

3) U.S.-Japan foreign policy is heading for trouble given what looks like a scuttled military base deal … but nobody’s worried very much in the context of broader Japanese policy woes. Plus, Japan doesn’t really have foreign policy (and China, as we’re seeing, does). Dangerous trumps ineffectual; advantage Japan. No hmm at all.

Ian Bremmer will be blogging from Davos this week sending reports and commentary from inside the World Economic Forum.