From Davos: Thoughts on fragile states

I just spoke at an interesting lunch panel on fragile states, which was surprisingly substantive given that all of the panelists got roughly four minutes for their interventions. My basic point — political stability and electoral openness frequently work at cross-purposes in times of state crisis. The West tends to fetishize early democratization, even when it leads to ...

By , the president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.

I just spoke at an interesting lunch panel on fragile states, which was surprisingly substantive given that all of the panelists got roughly four minutes for their interventions.

I just spoke at an interesting lunch panel on fragile states, which was surprisingly substantive given that all of the panelists got roughly four minutes for their interventions.

My basic point — political stability and electoral openness frequently work at cross-purposes in times of state crisis. The West tends to fetishize early democratization, even when it leads to Hamas in Gaza … or uncontested fraud-ridden polls in Afghanistan. (Quick thought experiment: If we had free and open elections in China, how would the resultant government handle, say, Google?) 

A more interesting and nuanced point: Even when elections are the right way to go, what kind of elections/institutions/legal system/government structure is worth a great deal more consideration and tailoring to on the ground conditions than generally appreciated? The Indian political structure’s durability comes in part from being vastly more decentralized than the United States. I’d suspect that’s exponentially more true in Afghanistan.

Former Haitian Prime Minister Michele Pierre Louis was impressive and almost shockingly thoughtful given everything her country has been through. She offered her thoughts on the distractions of elections and governance in "normal times" in Haiti and what that would mean in the context of reconstruction. As a complete outsider, it sounded like she’d like to get back into politics…

Ian Bremmer will be blogging from Davos this week sending reports and commentary from inside the World Economic Forum.

Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. He is also the host of the television show GZERO World With Ian Bremmer. Twitter: @ianbremmer

More from Foreign Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.

Can Russia Get Used to Being China’s Little Brother?

The power dynamic between Beijing and Moscow has switched dramatically.

Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.
Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.

Xi and Putin Have the Most Consequential Undeclared Alliance in the World

It’s become more important than Washington’s official alliances today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

It’s a New Great Game. Again.

Across Central Asia, Russia’s brand is tainted by Ukraine, China’s got challenges, and Washington senses another opening.

Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.
Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s House of Cards Is Collapsing

The region once seemed a bright spot in the disorder unleashed by U.S. regime change. Today, things look bleak.