Hong Kong’s Pro-Democracy Gamble

Hong Kong’s democrats gambled big this week. Tired of protests and negotiations, frustrated at the slow pace of political reform, five legislators from two political parties tendered their resignations. The move will trigger by-elections, an opportunity — they hope — for a de facto referendum on the territory’s relationship with China. They call the plan a "new democratic movement." "Right now industry and business are calling the shots in Hong Kong," said Alan Leong, one of the lawmakers who resigned. "This is a way to take the democracy issue directly to the people." A strong showing in by-elections would be a triumph for the city’s democracy movement and a blow to Beijing. But it’s politically risky: If the gamble fails, and the protesters lose, Hong Kong’s pro-independence movement won’t just lose seats, but will also lose face. A loss now could send the fractured movement into an embarrassing spiral, making independence from China less likely than ever.

A one-time British colony returned to China in 1997, Hong Kong operates under a "one country, two systems" policy, a post-colonial compromise that grants residents a range of rights but leaves the government beholden to Beijing. Half the legislature is elected, half is chosen by interest groups. Beijing picks the city’s leader. Although Chinese officials initially promised full democracy, they’ve backpedaled on timing, bumping it from 2007 to 2012 and now, later still. Thirteen years after the handover, there is still no definitive word on when, if ever, it will happen.

Beijing’s prevarication has fueled a scrappy democracy movement in this city of 7 million. At its peak in 2003, 500,000 people took to the streets to protest a Beijing-backed security bill, forcing the government to retreat. Since then, the numbers have dwindled, but pro-democracy demonstrations are still common. This year, the movement coalesced around opposition to a plan to spend roughly $9 billion on a 15-mile rail link to neighboring Guangzhou. Protests drew thousands, buoyed by a nascent student movement and anger over the legislature’s alleged willingness to bow to Beijing.

To turn anti-railway anger into a popular uprising, however, the democratic camp will need to unite its movement and the city. The by-elections triggered by the resignations could give pro-democracy lawmakers a chance to square off against Beijing-friendly opponents in each of the city’s five districts. With enough support, they’d win back their votes and make a powerful statement. But the plan only works with widespread support — and so far, that has been difficult to muster. Disagreements over strategy have divided erstwhile allies, with the influential Democratic Party opting against the resignation move. The party is still committed to reform, but won’t risk losing ground in a by-election. "We’re being strategic," said party representative Chan Ka Wei. "This is not the most important battle."

The public has doubts too. Recent polling data shows low support for the high-profile campaign. People are wary of an expensive by-election, especially when they’re not convinced the plan will work, observers say. In part, the public is jaded after years of Chinese feints and fakes. "Most people now believe that Beijing leaders are calling the shots," said Ma Ngok, a political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. On Tuesday, an above-the-fold story in the city’s English-language paper, the South China Morning Post, began with the line, "What if you called a ‘de facto referendum’ and nobody came?"

China is certainly hoping for a no-show. The State Council called the plan a "blatant challenge" to the central government’s authority. Donald Tsang, Hong Kong’s Beijing-backed chief executive, said he wouldn’t recognize any "so-called referendum," and pro-establishment parties might boycott. On Wednesday, when the lawmakers were scheduled to explain their resignations, pro-Beijing groups simply walked out. When the legislature reconvenes next week, the pro-democracy lawmakers might get their chance to speak. But if Beijing isn’t ready to listen, they may have played their hand too soon.