Somali insurgents announce their allegiance to al Qaeda

Al Shabaab, the Islamist militia wreaking havoc in Somalia, has long been rumored to be harboring al Qaeda ties. Some of the group’s main leaders — including several killed by U.S. drone strikes — probably trained with the organization abroad. And stories about foreign fighters are surfacing in this East African country have become increasingly believable in recent months. But now it’s official: In a statement issued by Shabaab and a smaller rebel group, Kamboni, the group proclaims: "We have agreed to join the international jihad of al Qaeda." It’s the first time that Shabaab has explicitly given reference to such international terrorist credentials.

This is big news for anyone still trying to read the tea leaves on the Somali insurgency, not least becuase in all honesty, this is really no insurgency at all. It’s a parallel government. On any day of the week, it would be easy to point to a map and argue that more of Somalia’s territory is run by Shabaab and its allies control than by the Transitional Federal Government (despite rather optimistic claims to the contrary). So if Shabaab is the al Qaeda affiliate it claims to be, that means that Somalia is being de facto run by a terrorist group. Yikes.

I have to wonder if the United States really gets all of this. As the last decade of conflict has shown us, chaos — a category in which Somalia has no competitors —  is perhaps the best predictor of 21st Century security ills. And from civil conflict to terrorism to refugees and the plight of disease, Somalia has it all. But it’s precisely for that reason that the Somalia portfolio has been a hot potato within the U.S. government — bouncing from agency to agency and advisor to advisor with no clear owner or no clear line. It’s probably less that U.S. policymarkers are ignoring Somalia (as the African Union suggested this weekend) as they are overwhelmed. A fair excuse, but a dangerous one as well.