Dead or alive? Top senators weigh in on nuke treaty’s chances

Congress could ratify a new nuclear treaty with Russia this year, although that is going to be no easy task, four leading senators told The Cable in separate, exclusive interviews Tuesday.

The delay in the signing of the treaty, known as "New START," combined with the Russian decision to temporarily get up from the table, has led many on Capitol Hill — on both sides of the aisle — to argue that there is just not enough time to go through a lengthy treaty ratification process that Congress hasn’t attempted in years. Many are skeptical that leading critics of the process will allow the ratification to go through, even when it reaches the Hill.

Foreign Relations Committee chairman John Kerry, D-MA, who will be responsible for shepherding the treaty through the Senate, said its survival will depend on when it actually materializes  and whether the administration is able to keep contentious issues like missile defense out of the document.

"It depends on when we get it; we haven’t seen it," Kerry said. "The administration is appropriately holding out for what we need to make the treaty verifiable and that will help it pass."

Kerry said there are legitimate disagreements with the Russians, mainly over how to address U.S. missile defense plans, but the administration has to continue to try to minimize the presence of issues that could provoke a backlash among leading GOP Senators such as Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl, who has been wrangling with the State Department over the negotiations.

"If the agreement is hailed as being pretty solid and doesn’t set up a number of questions about America’s security that can be exploited in the context of the debate, it could pass," Kerry said. "If it has those kinds of questions, it could be problematic."

As for whether there are 67 votes for it in the Senate, Kerry said, "I have no idea."

His counterpart, committee ranking Republican Richard Lugar, R-IN, was actually more optimistic.

"I remain hopeful that it will be signed and that there will be time assigned on the floor for debate and a vote this year," said Lugar, who added he would support the treaty "unless there are extraordinary changes beyond those that I’ve heard about."

He said it was not a foregone conclusion that Republican senators like Kyl, John McCain, R-AZ, and Joseph Lieberman, I-CT, would oppose the treaty, despite their written objection to the latest reports that Russia is planning to issue a unilateral statement reserving the right to withdraw from the new treaty if U.S. missile defense plans upset "strategic stability."

McCain told The Cable Wednesday he would be "adamantly opposed to including anything that has to do with missile defense, in anything," even a unilateral statement aside the treaty.

"Apparently we were very close to an agreement and it seems like there is some insistence on their part to include missile defense in some way," McCain said of the Russians, adding, "Jon Kyl and I find that totally unacceptable."

Another important player in the debate is Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Robert Casey, Jr., D-PA, who is taking on an increased role in nuclear issues. He was more optimistic than any of his counterparts about the prospects for ratification this year.

"I think we can do it and I think we should," Casey said. "Often in Washington the pronouncement of what’s dead and what’s alive is fiction. I think we can pass it and I think we should try to pass it."

"I don’t think we have 67 votes today," Casey admitted. But he said vote counting should wait until the administration and the treaty’s advocates have a chance to really push the debate.

"I don’t underestimate the difficulty of making progress on START," Casey said.