State’s arms control vacancy caught up in Iran NIE controversy

As the State Department celebrates its biggest success by signing the new START treaty in Prague today, back in Washington a key arms-control job remains unfilled with no nominee in sight.

The "T" family at State, which is comprised of three arms-control related bureaus, has seen a real resurgence in this administration. This is due both to the genuine desire of President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to reinvigorate the capacity and strength of the arms-control bureaucracy and the efforts of under secretary Ellen Tauscher, the former congresswoman who now finds herself with the ability to implement the arms-control agenda she advocated for years on Capitol Hill.

The bureau itself is alive again. It’s even been redecorated. And Tauscher has brought on a top-echelon staff with a broad range of experience. Some stars include Deputy Assistant Secretary Frank Rose, who was Tauscher’s key missile defense aide in Congress, chief of staff Simon Limage, Wade Boese, formerly of the Arms Control Association, Jofi Joseph, former foreign-policy advisor for Sen. Bob Casey, Josh Kirshner, formerly of the House Intelligence Committee , and many others.

But one key position in her bureau remains leaderless. The bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation (ISN) still has no assistant secretary and there are no signs a nomination is coming any time soon. That’s a problem because the ISN bureau is crucial to Tauscher’s plan to reorganize the T family, and even Sen. Richard Lugar has noted that this will be more difficult without an assistant secretary at the helm.

The staff is ably led by acting assistant secretary Vann Van Diepen, but his nomination could reopen a contentious debate about the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which the administration is trying to avoid.

State is right to be concerned about a lengthy and contentious fight over the nomination. Leading GOP senators such as Minority Whip Jon Kyl have been constantly frustrated by what they see as the State Department’s reluctance to keep them in the loop on arms-control issues.

State disputes that, pointing to the multiple breifings administration officials have given Kyl and his staff and noting that Kyl has even been to Geneva to oberserve the START negotiations himself.

He held up for months State’s last arms control nominee, Ambassador Laura Kennedy,before finally removing his objections in February.

And the most obvious choice for the open job, Van Diepen, is controversial as far as the GOP leadership is concerned, due to his involvement in writing a controversial 2007 National Intelligence estimate on Iran’s nuclear program.

Van Diepen was one of three principal authors of the estimate, which concluded, "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program."

The administration is said to be preparing a new estimate that rolls back that claim, although that will be classified.

In a little noticed congressional hearing in late March, Congressman Ed Royce pressed Van Diepen on the issue. Van Diepen tried to defend the NIE and said, "by ‘nuclear weapons program’ we mean Iran’s nuclear weapon design and weaponization work. … We do not mean Iran’s … uranium conversion and enrichment."

Clinton is said to be supportive of Van Diepen. However, the GOP is already warning that the nomination would be problematic.

"If Vann were nominated for any role requiring senate confirmation, GOP senators would demand a thorough review of the entire record related to the 2007 NIE and its terribly flawed and political judgments," a senior GOP senate aide told The Cable. "I would have thought State already has enough fights on its hands."

Sources said that State had forwarded the name of Steve Mull to the White House, but the White House never acted on it and Mull is now said to be in line for another State Department job in a different bureau.