Russia is having a good month in the near abroad…. which isn’t necessarily bad for the United States

Last week Russia used some economic coercion to get a friendlier government in Kyrgyzstan.  This week, Russia uses some financial inducements to secure a strategic base in Ukraine, as Roman Olearchyk and Stefan Wagstyl report for the Financial Times. 

Russia on Wednesday agreed to slash gas prices to Ukraine by 30 per cent in exchange for far-reaching economic and political concessions, including a long extension of the Russian navy’s lease of a strategic Black Sea port….

Mr Yanukovich agreed to grant permission for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to remain in Sevastopol for an additional 25-30 years – far beyond 2017 when the current lease expires.

Mr Medvedev said Russian gas giant Gazprom would grant Ukraine a 30 per cent discount on gas, bringing the price down by about $100 per 1,000 cubic meter from a current rate of just above $300. “Our Ukrainian partners will receive a discount on gas. These funds will turn into a real resource for [Ukraine’s] business and economic aims,” he said.

The deal also appeared to secure lucrative contracts for Russian companies to build two nuclear reactors in Ukraine, and preserve their roles as monopoly nuclear fuel suppliers.

So, Russia is finally getting its way in the near abroad, which is bad for the United States, right?  Well, not exactly.  No question, the new governments in Bishkek and Kiev are an improvement for Moscow compared to the ones installed by the color revolutions of the past decade.  On the other hand, the legality of the base deal remains murky under Ukrainian law. 

More importantly, these new governments are not acting in an unfriendly manner towards the United States.  Kyrgyzstan’s interim president Roza Otunbayeva has told Western reporters that the U.S. lease on its airbase in Kyrgyz will be extended automatically.  Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych gave Barack Obama his biggest deliverable at the Nuclear Safety Summit earlier this month when he pledged that his country would eliminate its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. 

The familiar language in talking about the near abroad is whether a government is a friend of Russia or a friend of America.  These governments are clearly more friendly to Russia than the previous ones, but there also appears to be no strategic loss for the United States.  Which appears to be a win-win for both countries.