Is Hatoyama about to get the axe?

It’s hard to believe that less than a year ago, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama came to power riding one of the largest political mandates the country has ever seen. In an election upset last summer that threw out the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan secured 300 out of 480 seats ...

TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images
TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images
TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images

It's hard to believe that less than a year ago, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama came to power riding one of the largest political mandates the country has ever seen. In an election upset last summer that threw out the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan secured 300 out of 480 seats in parliament. The LDP struggled to net even 120 seats — arguably the worst defeat ever for the party that had enjoyed almost 50 years of unbroken rule. It was a lopsided contest largely viewed as a referendum on the government of sitting prime minister Taro Aso, whose approval ratings had fallen to about 20 percent ahead of the August 2009 election.

It’s hard to believe that less than a year ago, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama came to power riding one of the largest political mandates the country has ever seen. In an election upset last summer that threw out the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan secured 300 out of 480 seats in parliament. The LDP struggled to net even 120 seats — arguably the worst defeat ever for the party that had enjoyed almost 50 years of unbroken rule. It was a lopsided contest largely viewed as a referendum on the government of sitting prime minister Taro Aso, whose approval ratings had fallen to about 20 percent ahead of the August 2009 election.

Today, it looks as though Hatoyama himself may soon suffer a similar fate. As many as 75 percent of Japanese voters disapprove of Hatoyama’s government, and six in ten want him to resign. Voters are punishing the prime minister for his mishandling of the economy and, in particular, his failure to press the United States on relocating its Okinawa military base. The spat over the U.S. Marine base caused a split in the three-party ruling coalition yesterday as the left-wing Social Democratic Party walked out. Could things get any worse for Yukio Hatoyama?

This is where party kingmaker Ichiro Ozawa comes into play. If he orders the PM to step down, the DPJ just might be able to rebrand itself before the next round of elections on July 11. But if Hatoyama stays in office, his party will need to gird itself for a tough campaign fight in which it stands on the losing side of just about every issue.

As of late Tuesday in Japan, private discussions with Ozawa seemed to leave Hatoyama smiling, but a lot could change in the next 24 hours.

Brian Fung is an editorial researcher at FP.

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