Northern exposure
I’ve just read an alarming paper (pdf) by Antonio Giustozzi and Christoph Reuter, a well-regarded Afghanistan expert and a veteran German journalist. Surveying the last few months of reporting on the Taliban’s efforts to infiltrate northern Afghanistan — not a traditional Taliban stronghold — the authors conclude that after years of little success, the group’s ...
I've just read an alarming paper (pdf) by Antonio Giustozzi and Christoph Reuter, a well-regarded Afghanistan expert and a veteran German journalist.
I’ve just read an alarming paper (pdf) by Antonio Giustozzi and Christoph Reuter, a well-regarded Afghanistan expert and a veteran German journalist.
Surveying the last few months of reporting on the Taliban’s efforts to infiltrate northern Afghanistan — not a traditional Taliban stronghold — the authors conclude that after years of little success, the group’s campaign is "beginning to have an impact."
"Steadily, over years, and withstanding their initial failures," they write, the Taliban "has established areas of local dominance by sending cadres to different parts of the north."
The Taliban’s gains in Kunduz province, which lies across the Amu Darya River fromTajikistan, have been well documented. At least one key district, Chardara, is under complete Taliban control, and other areas of the province are under threat.
Kunduz is something of a special case, as the province is roughly half Pashtun and therefore more amenabe to Taliban influence. But Giustozzi and Reuter say the Taliban is making disturbing progress in winning over Pashtuns in neighboring Faryab province, and even non-Pashtuns are signing up with the rebels.
"Evidence is mounting that Uzbeks, Turkmen, Aimaqs and to a lesser extent, Tajiks are being drawn into the Taleban’s ranks in significant numbers," the report reads.
What seems to be happening, aside from a concerted push from Pakistan-based Taliban leaders to establish a northern foothold, is that the growing weakness and enduring corruption of the government is pushing people into the enemy camp.
The coalition ignores or dismisses this trend at its peril, the authors warn.
"Moving north strengthens their claim to be the legitimate government of Afghanistan and to be fighting for the whole country, not just for a particular region or ethnic group. Furthermore, there is no doubt that the psychological impact of the north’s destabilisation upon Western Europe and the US would be considerable."
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