What this Australian election really means

Australian voters will cast their ballots Saturday to choose potentially their third Prime Minister in nine weeks. Still in a post-putsch daze following Prime Minister Gillard’s “et tu, Julia?” ouster of Kevin Rudd in June, the electorate will now decide between either rewarding Gillard and the Labour Party’s palace coup with a full term, or starting afresh by choosing the colorful Tony Abbott and a Liberal Party government.

Most polls show an essentially deadlocked race, with the added wild card of the third party Greens potentially securing enough votes to force a hung parliament or coalition government.  Absent a clear sign from voter surveys, some prognosticators have looked for other sources of insight, such as Harry the Psychic crocodile who picked a Gillard victory. The fact that the purportedly clairvoyant reptile’s method of “picking” involves eating a poultry carcass attached to a photo of the candidate’s face is decidedly not confidence-inducing. Put it this way — it is rarely a good thing for a political campaign to be represented by a dead chicken. Especially a dead chicken devoured by a crocodile.

One of the paradoxes of the tight campaign is that conditions in Australia overall are quite good, a fact which would normally hand the ruling government a comfortable victory. Australia has weathered the global economic crisis well, technically avoiding recession by suffering only a single quarter of GDP contraction, with unemployment holding at 5.3%. While some credit goes to the banking sector’s avoidance of toxic debt and an adept government stimulus package, Australia’s resilient foundations are rooted in the remarkable economic boom and fiscal stability achieved under former Prime Minister John Howard, which contributed to Australia’s No. 1 ranking in the 2008 Legatum Prosperity Index.

On economic issues, the electorate’s increasingly fond memories of the Howard government likely account for some of the Liberal Party’s resurgent appeal. And voter concerns over a return to budget deficits under Labour are real, as are lingering resentments over Rudd’s disastrous campaign to push a 40 percent “super-profits tax” targeted at the Australian mining industry, which had been a major driver of the past decade of growth.

Foreign policy issues have played almost no role in the campaign. Nevertheless, nations in the region, and especially the United States, have a substantial stake in the outcome. Australia is one of America’s strongest and longest-standing allies, the only nation to have fought alongside the United States in every war of the past century. U.S.-Australia relations under the Obama administration have been cordial though not particularly robust — and certainly not helped by President Obama’s two cancelled visits. In an interview this week with the Diplomat, former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer made the telling comment that “the Obama administration has placed less emphasis on alliances and allies. This means that Australia by its very nature has a lower profile in Washington than we had during the Bush administration, particularly during the Howard years.”

However, in recent months the Obama administration has substantially improved its strategic posture in the Asia-Pacific. From the joint naval exercises with South Korea, to stabilizing relations with Japan, to upgrading ties with Vietnam, to serving notice that the United States does not accept China’s hegemonic assertions in the South China Sea, the administration seems to have found a new compass in the region. While new partnerships with nations such as India and Indonesia will feature in a successful Asia strategy, America’s existing alliances in the region will still serve as the foundation.  

Here is where the U.S.-Australia relationship is indispensable. Both nations share interests and values, and often a common perspective on pressing regional and global issues — whether the war against jihadist terrorism, China’s growing assertiveness (even using Fiji — yes, Fiji — as a proxy), democracy and human rights promotion, maritime security, free trade, or energy security. America has no stronger ally in the region. Whatever the outcome of tomorrow’s elections, they represent an opportunity for the Obama administration to reinvigorate ties with this enduring alliance partner.