The Weekly Wrap: August 28, 2010

Greenland or bust! On Tuesday the U.K. exploration firm Cairn Energy revealed that it has discovered natural gas in Baffin Bay, just off the west coast of Greenland. It’s too early to tell whether the area contains commercial quantities of oil and natural gas, but the find is encouraging. The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated that the waters off the island could contain as much as 50 billion barrels of oil and gas, while melting ice has suddenly made a once-inhospitable area more viable for offshore drilling. Edinburgh-based Cairn is optimistic that the basin could be a major find, and other energy companies have hurried north to apply for exploration licenses. One company that won’t be joining them is BP, whose less-than-stellar recent reputation with offshore drilling has forced it to back off. But despite mounting environmental groups’ opposition to the drilling and the presence of a renegade ice island floating south, energy companies are likely to continue to flock to what could be the next frontier in oil and gas.

Nigeria’s electricity privatization gamble.  Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan announced yesterday that the country plans to privatize the state-owned power monopoly and attract foreign investment in the electricity sector. Electricity demand in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, has always strained the country’s inadequate national grid thanks to heavily-subsidized prices, and power outages are common. Abuja hopes to drum up some $10 billion in foreign investment to make the necessary upgrades, and already investors from Canada, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India, and China have expressed interest. In keeping with his other energy reform efforts, President Jonathan is trying to boost his reform credentials as his party heads into national elections in January 2011. Overcoming Nigeria’s chronic power crisis would be a critical step forward in the government’s pursuit of growth and development.

An unlikely partner in drilling safety. Lee Hunt, president of the International Association of Drilling Contractors, said on Wednesday that he would welcome Cuban state oil company Cubapetroleo (Cupet) to join the organization as "a member of the international drilling community." Hunt and other association officials were visiting Havana this week as Cuba prepares to drill a series of test wells in its section of the Gulf of Mexico over the next two years. Cupet’s drilling partners in the project are all members of the industry group, which wants to bring in the Cuban company to ensure that drilling safety and technical standards are met. But the Houston-based organization will have to secure approval from the Obama administration first. While there are no signs that the 50-year old U.S. trade embargo will be lifted any time soon, informal industry cooperation over drilling safety standards could be a modest first step towards some normalization of commercial relations with Cuba.

Drilling ban’s diminished impact. Concerns about the Obama administration’s extended moratorium on offshore drilling may have been premature, according to John Broder and Clifford Krauss at The New York Times. After much protest from drillers and supply firms, who argued that the ban would endanger thousands of industry jobs and drive drilling from U.S. waters, the impact of the moratorium has been milder than expected. This is because oil companies have used the drilling freeze to perform needed maintenance and upgrades to their rigs, while concentrating more on onshore drilling. Job losses have been far below what the industry claimed they would be. Administration officials have also repeatedly hinted that the ban might be lifted before its November 30 expiration date. Meanwhile, the BP spill seems to have had little to no effect on the progress of other global offshore drilling projects, although other governments have announced new regulations and safety reviews.

China and South Africa ink nuclear energy deal. China and South Africa announced a series of high-profile business deals on Tuesday, one of which could see China National Nuclear Corp. construct a nuclear-power plant in South Africa. Talks are under way with the Chinese state-owned nuclear company to import nuclear technology to South Africa, while a banking partnership between the two countries would finance any joint nuclear efforts. The deals come as South African president Jacob Zuma visited Beijing this week to promote commercial relations with Beijing, South Africa’s top trading partner. China has been trying to position itself as a leading exporter of nuclear technology, while continuing its broader strategy of strengthening its presence in Africa.

Could China push the world into alternative fuels? The Council on Foreign Relations’ Geo-Graphics blog has an illuminating post this week depicting the potentially sobering effect of China’s insatiable demand for oil. According to the chart, once a country’s per capita income hits $15,000, oil consumption growth tends to increase exponentially. So far Chinese oil consumption has shown no signs of slowing down, but its per capita oil consumption remains less than 0.1 barrel per person per day, compared to the nearly 0.7 barrels per person per day by the United States. But as China approaches the $15,000 GDP per capita mark, world oil supplies could be in for a shock, as the projected increase in demand would necessitate unrealistic increases in global oil output. If China follows this consumption pattern, alternative energy sources may be looking like less of an alternative and more of a necessity.

Oil prices rebound, gas moves to new low. Crude oil prices were staring at a third straight week of declines before rebounding towards the end of the week, closing at $75.17 Friday in New York. Plummeting U.S. housing purchases and continued high U.S. stockpiles pushed oil prices to an 11-week low of $70.76 on Wednesday, before a reduction in jobless claims, a weaker dollar, and Friday’s speech by Fed chair Ben Bernanke renewed confidence in crude. But a weak U.S. economy remains the primary concern for oil analysts, and reports of cooling Chinese oil demand are also likely to encourage bearish sentiments. Accordingly, OPEC has already announced a 0.3 percent cut in crude shipments. High stockpiles of natural gas also caused that commodity to take a beating this week, a
s prices fell to their lowest levels in nearly a year. And gasoline prices are also in a downward spiral, which should provide some added relief for drivers getting away this Labor Day weekend.