Iraq: the raveling

Ever since violence in Iraq receded from its peak in 2007, a cottage industry of sorts has sprung up ominously predicting a return to the bad old days. In the past year, there has been plenty of ammunition for these folks: Iraq’s government formation process set world records for delay, articles warned of a resurgent al Qaeda in Iraq, and U.S. troops continued to engage in combat operations across the country, the official end of Operation Iraqi Freedom notwithstanding.

These are all important data points — but it’s also a selective reading of events. The fact is, there’s also some positive news from Iraq these days: According the Iraqi government sources, the country experienced its lowest toll of violence in September since January. The Iraqi ministries reported that 273 Iraqis were killed in September, a dramatic decline from high levels of violence in July and August. The Iraqi government’s figures were supported by Iraqi Body Count, which reported 243 casualties in September, and iCasualties.org, which calculated that 174 Iraqis had been killed.

There’s even been progress in forming a government. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki appears all but assured to win a second term in office, assuming he can mollify the remaining Kurdish demands to join his coalition. No, the pan-Shia coalition that Maliki will rely on to sweep back into office isn’t the way that diplomats would have preferred to see the next Iraqi prime minister elected. But with the United States rapidly losing its military leverage in Iraq, U.S. officials — and Iraqis themselves — are better off with a new government in place than a vacuum at the top.

So, one cheer for Iraq’s growing stability. It has now been three years since the worst of Iraq’s civil war ended, and, while there are plenty of challenges ahead, the country has shown no signs of falling back into chaos. That’s good news, even if it doesn’t make for good headlines.