McCain: Southern Iraq like ‘Chicago in the ’20s’

An April 2008 cable describes a meeting between Sen. (then presidential candidate) John McCain and then British Conservative Party leader David Cameron. Much of the discussion focuses on Iraq, where McCain said he felt the security situation was improving, but still had concerns about developments in the South, particularly Basrah:

Cameron asked McCain what he thought was happening in the south of Iraq. McCain said he was very worried. He said it was like "Chicago in the 20’s" and "could go at any time." The Iranians were there and the Iraqis were likely to find "the going to be extremely difficult." "Just because its quiet," said McCain, "doesn’t mean it’s good. It is quiet for all the wrong reasons."

McCain also made an interesting observation about former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s work as a Mideast negotiator:

Cameron asked whether Quartet Leader Tony Blair was optimistic. McCain said he admired Blair for his steadfastness, but what McCain had noticed in international relations was the tendency of statesmen to be optimistic once they become negotiators.

The two also discussed Afghanistan, with McCain perturbed by developments in neighboring Pakistan and Cameron expressing doubts about Hamid Karzai’s level of control:

Cameron told McCain that he and his party focused on Afghanistan as the key foreign police issue. This was due, not least, to the timeline for when the Conservatives might come into office (2010 or 2009 at the earliest) and the fact that British troops were meant to be out of Iraq by then. Cameron also raised Pakistan, noting that 60,000 individuals travel to Pakistan from the UK each year and that this has implications for the UK’s own significant domestic "terror threat." Cameron said he was interested in exploring the idea of whether ISAF and Enduring Freedom operations could be combined, as well as whether an increase in military presence was required or an enhanced civilian presence was more important. McCain replied that Afghanistan is complicated by the uncertainty in Pakistan. "We all like Karzai," he said, "but his is a very weak government." Cameron said NATO troop capacity was "patchy" and there appeared to be perpetual problems with shortages of air transport support. McCain said he was worried about Pakistan. "If they don’t cooperate and help us, I don’t know what we are going to do," he said. He added, "Waziristan hasn’t been ruled for 2,000 years." On a positive note, McCain praised the fighting capacity of Afghans, whom he called "great fighters." Cameron said each year he met with Karzai, and each year he had the sense Karzai’s sphere of influence was shrinking.