U.S. Embassy in Tripoli describes Libyan regime as “thuggish”

On Saturday, The Daily Beast reported that the State Department is planning to reshuffle its diplomats around the world in the wake of the WikiLeaks disclosures, and speculated that Gene Cretz, the U.S. ambassador who relayed that Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi has a yen for voluptuous Ukrainian nurses, might be among the first to go.

Libya experts I spoke with didn’t think that revelation would sink Cretz — the Libyans are well aware that their leader is seen as eccentric in the West — but a newly released cable, in which the ambassador warns Washington that Libya "regime remains essentially thuggish in its approach" and is threatening "dire" consequences if the British don’t release the Lockerbie bomber, Abdelbasset al-Megrahi, could be a real problem.

Here’s the money graph:

[Libyan]officials have warned [British embassy officials] in demarches here that the consequences for the U.K.-Libya bilateral relationship would be "dire" were al-Megrahi to die in Scottish prison. Specific threats have included the immediate cessation of all U.K. commercial activity in Libya, a diminishment or severing of political ties and demonstrations against official U.K. facilities. [Libyan] officials also implied, but did not directly state, that the welfare of U.K. diplomats and citizens in Libya would be at risk.

[…]

The failure of Switzerland and Libya to resolve the dispute prompted by the arrest of Muammar al-Qadhafi’s son, Hannibal, last July has convinced [British embassy officials] that the consequences if al-Megrahi were to die in prison or if the transfer under the [U.K.-Libya Prisoner Transfer Agreement] were denied would be harsh, immediate and not easily remedied.

Cretz goes on to warn that if the United States "publicly opposes al-Megrahi’s release (or is perceived to be complicit in a decision to keep al-Megrahi in prison), Post [the embassy] judges that U.S. interests could face similar consequences." (Megrahi, was, of course, released on "health grounds" and returned to Libya to a hero’s welcome, over U.S. objections.)

Another interesting cable signed by the U.S. chargée d’affaires passes along speculation that former British prime minister Tony Blair had linked Megrahi’s release to trade deals:

[Qaddafi’s son] Saif al-Islam implied that former UK PM Tony Blair had raised Megrahi with the Libyan leader in connection with lucrative business deals during Blair’s 2007 visit to Libya. [Note: Rumors that Blair made linkages between Megrahi’s release and trade deals have been longstanding among Embassy contacts. End note.] The UK Ambassador in Tripoli categorically denied the claims during a conversation with the Charge August 21.

It’s hard to imagine U.S.-Libyan relations proceeding smoothly after these disclosures. The sad irony is that, by all accounts, Cretz is a tough, smart diplomat who has dealt effectively with a mercurial, and yes, "thuggish" regime. If he has to go, he’ll be tough to replace.