Fidel Castro came close to death in 2006

The big headline from this cable, dated March 16, 2007, is that U.S. diplomats believe Fidel Castro came close to death from his diverticulitis in the Summer of 2006. But what really strikes me is the extent to which State’s top Havana-watchers and their confidential sources seemed just as baffled as the rest of us ...

By , a former associate editor at Foreign Policy.

The big headline from this cable, dated March 16, 2007, is that U.S. diplomats believe Fidel Castro came close to death from his diverticulitis in the Summer of 2006. But what really strikes me is the extent to which State's top Havana-watchers and their confidential sources seemed just as baffled as the rest of us about Fidel's condition. 

The big headline from this cable, dated March 16, 2007, is that U.S. diplomats believe Fidel Castro came close to death from his diverticulitis in the Summer of 2006. But what really strikes me is the extent to which State’s top Havana-watchers and their confidential sources seemed just as baffled as the rest of us about Fidel’s condition. 

[T]his illness is not curable, and will not, in her opinion, allow him to return to leading Cuba. He won’t die immediately, but he will progressively lose his faculties and become ever more debilitated until he dies."

5. (C) This report is consistent with our reporting that Fidel Castro probably came close to death in July, 2006, and then again around October. Since then, as we have seen in video and audio broadcasts, Castro has been able to engage with Hugo Chavez and others for limited periods of conversation and other forms of carefully controlled activity. He has not appeared live on TV or in any other public context during the entire period of his critical illness, which caused him to miss the September, 2006 Non-Aligned summit and a large-scale celebration of his birthday and armed forces day in December, 2006.

6. (C) Cubans react to news about Fidel Castro with resignation and wild speculation. XXXXXXXXXXX told us March 15 that he thought last month’s taped call-in by Castro to Hugo Chavez’s radio show was fake and that he would die by May. XXXXXXXXXXX, described the Castro illness as having a similar effect on the public as the Pope’s 1998 visit: Greatly raised expectation for change, followed by disappointment and reversion to the totalitarian norm.

(C) Comment: We are missing too many variables to be able to predict accurately how many more months Fidel Castro will live. Frankly, we don’t believe anyone, including Castro himself, can state that with certainty. However, while he is still alive, even in a reduced capacity, his presence has a chilling and retardant effect on Cuban society. The high expectations for change are still out there, but are mostly associated with the idea that the dictator has to die first before anything substantial will happen.

Joshua Keating was an associate editor at Foreign Policy. Twitter: @joshuakeating

Tag: Cuba

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