The impact of Mideast unrest on the situations in Iraq, Iran & Afghanistan?

A thoughtful BD reader asks what the fallout from political upheaval of the Middle East will be for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He suspects that there will be less Arab money flowing to the Taliban, and so an opportunity for the U.S. to finish its work and leave. I don’t know about that, but I think it is a good overall question. It will have some impact in Iraq, I think — and already has had a bit. Afghanistan is more distant from the events, and doesn’t think of itself as Arab. But if the unrest starts accelerating change in Iran, then that will certainly affect neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq.

Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, had an upbeat take at the Pentagon yesterday (Tues.) on the situation with Iran: "Iran is the real loser here, whether they want to admit it or not. And they’ve had no hand in the change sweeping the region, except they one they have used to slap back their own people."

A friend said to me recently that the time to worry about Iran getting frisky in Iraq is at the end of this year, when the Status of Forces Agreement expires, and U.S. forces all have to leave. There inevitably will be a dragged-out round of negotiations about the post-2011 American presence, he said, and during that Iran likely will enjoy free rein in Iraq. Unless they are too busy at home …

Meanwhile, the new issue of West Point’s CTC Sentinel foresees trouble on the horizon for the Muslim Brotherhood:

The next few months, however, will see the Brotherhood pushed out of its comfort zone and forced to play a more explicit political role. Given the presence of ideological trends inside the group hesitant to take on this role, it is likely that the requirements of an increased political profile will exacerbate internal divisions. To be sure, the group has, in recent years, developed internal consultative mechanisms that increase its ability to resolve debates while maintaining organizational cohesion. Yet with the advent of Egyptian democracy, this may not be enough. Repression, for all the problems it caused the Brotherhood, served to unify its ranks. When survival is at stake, a group can postpone answering difficult questions. Now, for the first time in decades, the Brotherhood will have little choice but to face them.

As for Libya, old Juan Cole estimates that Qaddafi has lost 90 percent of the country.