Mideast news brief: Syrians take to the streets for “Day of Defiance” as troops are deployed

Daily Snapshot 

Syrian army soldiers drive their truck, plastered with a portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, out of Daraa on May 5, 2011 as troops pulled out of the southern protest hub after a military lockdown of more than a week during which dozens of people were killed in what activists termed as ‘indiscriminate’ shelling of the town, some 100 kms south of the capital Damascus. The Syrian military’s political department chief insisted that troops ‘did not confront the protesters’ in Daraa, adding that 25 soldiers were killed and 177 wounded during the military campaign to ‘search for terrorists’ (LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images).

Arguments & Analysis  

‘Syria’s middle class can defeat Bashar al-Assad’ (Ahmed Hussein, The Guardian) 

“From the early days of the uprising, a major split emerged within Syrian society pitting loyalists and revolutionaries against one another, sometimes even dividing families. Those who have supported the revolution with great enthusiasm have done so out of sheer desperation with the state of their daily lives in Syria today. This is the majority of Syrians – poor and oppressed. Those who have supported the regime have done so because the privileges they enjoy depend on the regime surviving. In this camp you have officials close to Assad, senior security and military officers, and their families. But there is a third group who so far have also supported the regime for fear of an unknown future. These are the middle classes, the people who own businesses and trade. This third group is affected by scenes of Syrian cities turning into military cantons for the first time in our modern history. They have been led to think the demonstrations are a prelude for civil war — another Libya. Nevertheless, the continual mistakes of the regime have led the middle classes to shift position with each passing day from being silent supporters of the regime to supporters of the revolution.”

‘Muqtada al-Sadr, back in business’ (The Economist)    

“…it is social and religious issues that most preoccupy Mr Sadr. A new movement in his thrall, called the Munasirun (“supporters”), has recently paraded itself in Baghdad and Basra. It claims already to have thousands of members, including some who are not Shias and others-it says-who are not even Muslim. It plans to open offices across the country, focusing on religious education and charity. Mr Sadr has told all his politicians to spend a day sweeping the streets to stay in touch with the poor. Sadrist charity is extensive and well-publicised. The group is fond of arranging opinion polls. Some results are unsurprising; for instance, Iraqis want better public services. But as a public-relations exercise the polls make the movement look democratic and efficient. Mr Sadr has also sought to distance himself from the Mahdi Army’s reputation for violence. Former militiamen showing promise as future leaders undergo a programme of religious study. Last month Mr Sadr declared: “I rejected [the militias’] brutal and sectarian acts and they are not linked to the [violent] resistance in any way.” That seems to contradict his threats to reinstate them. Mr Sadr is walking a fine line between keeping up his fiercely anti-Western stance and becoming an influential political and religious leader who does not rely on his old militias. But he still boasts of his small, highly trained “Promised Day” brigades, who are said to be ready to hit the Americans at any moment.”

‘Internal strife emerges as Tehran looks Westward’ (David Ignatius, Washington Post)

“When there’s political upheaval in Tehran, it’s often interwoven with the explosive question of possible outreach to the United States. And that may be the case with a recent feud between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The key figure in this dispute is Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, Ahmadinejad’s former chief of staff and said to be his choice as successor in the next Iranian presidential elections, scheduled for 2013…In recent months, Mashaei is said to have initiated a series of contacts attempting to open a dialogue with the United States. The political ferment in Tehran is one more sign of the Arab Spring, an earthquake that is shaking the entire Middle East. In this environment, both Ahmadinejad and Khamenei understand that the legitimacy of their increasingly isolated regime is in danger. Ahmadinejad’s circle seems to favor outreach; Khamenei and the clerics want deeper retrenchment. Sources say Mashaei has sent multiple signals indicating that he wants to meet with American representatives. U.S. officials say there hasn’t been a meeting, and that’s probably because Washington isn’t clear precisely who Mashaei represents or what his agenda for talks might be. Although President Obama has never dropped his offer to talk with Iran, it would be risky for the United States to engage any single faction. That’s likely one explanation for U.S. wariness about Mashaei’s overtures.”