Who can arrest Gaddafi?

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno Ocampo, announced today that he is requesting indictments of Muammar Gaddafi, his son Saif, and Libya’s intelligence chief:

The evidence shows that Muammar Gaddafi, personally, ordered attacks on unarmed Libyan civilians. His forces attacked Libyan civilians in their homes and in the public space, repressed demonstrations with live ammunition, used heavy artillery against participants in funeral processions, and placed snipers to kill those leaving mosques after the prayers. 

The request for an indictment now goes to the court’s judges, who are the only officials empowered to issue indictments. It’s worth noting that Moreno-Ocampo has clashed with pre-trial judges in the past, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they took their time considering the request or even sought additional information from the prosecutor. But assuming that the indictments issue soon, the question will become who, if anyone, will enforce them.  Later in today’s statement, Moreno Ocampo had this to say:

My Office has not requested the intervention of international forces to implement the arrest warrants. Should the Court issue them and the three individuals remain in Libya, Libyan authorities have the primary responsibility to arrest them. Libya is a member of the United Nations and it has the duty to abide by Security Council Resolution 1970.

The notion of Libya turning over Gaddafi is not as absurd as it seems. It’s clear that Western policymakers have seen an internal coup as one attractive way out of the current stalemate, and an ICC indictment would provide an easy answer to the question of what to do with Gaddafi. It could also be an effective peace offering from whomever takes over in Tripoli to the international community.

Assuming that Gaddafi isn’t betrayed by his own side, would international forces have the authority, the opportunity, or the will to seek Gaddafi’s capture? An arrest warrant creates legal obligations for ICC member states but it doesn’t on its own generate authority to use force that would otherwise be impermissible. Reading existing UN Security Council resolutions very liberally (as Western countries generally have), one could argue that Gaddafi’s arrest is essential to protecting Libyan civilians and that therefore states already have the authority they need to forcibly seize Gaddafi.

A snatch-and-grab operation is highly unlikely with Gaddafi ensconced in Tripoli, but the question would be much more relevant were he to flee the country seeking exile. In that case, though, it’s tough to argue that his capture is any longer essential for protecting civilians. If Gaddafi does ultimately flee Libya, diplomatic cooperation, rather than some kind of international arrest operation, is the most likely path to the Hague.