Eroding Public Support for Afghanistan? Perhaps, but Not (Yet) a Total Collapse

A recent Washington Post poll shows that President Obama probably has the political breathing room he would need to choose from a wider array of options on Afghanistan than the conventional wisdom believes. While support for the war is eroding, it has not eroded to the point where domestic political considerations need trump a careful consideration of conditions on the ground in Afghanistan. Put another way: if a measured withdrawal would increase prospects for a successful outcome in Afghanistan than would a rapid retreat from the theater, then there may be enough political space in American domestic politics to permit such an approach.

This only sharpens the very difficult choice confronting Obama. Fred and Kimberly Kagan argue that conditions on the ground dictate delaying the withdrawal, or at least opting for a slower, more modest withdrawal than the anti-war faction has demanded. If the Kagans are right — and I would note that Stephen Biddle has offered a similar compelling take — then a hasty withdrawal is precisely the wrong thing to do at this point. Some of Obama’s advisors are arguing for an accelerated withdrawal, while others are arguing for a more measured transition that would focus on the 2014 strategic horizon. 

In sum, expert opinion is divided with forceful arguments on either side. And, not coincidentally, political support is weak. Weak, but perhaps not completely beyond the reach of a determined mobilization effort — or so the recent poll might suggest. That such a window still exists is a remarkable fact, given how little President Obama has done to shore up political support for the war he called a "necessary" war a few years ago. It means that President Obama does face political pressure to end the war in Afghanistan, but that that pressure need not be considered irresistible. A determined commander-in-chief could still pursue a costlier strategy, provided that he persuaded the American public that this offered the best chance of leading to a more successful outcome.

But first, one person needs to be persuaded: himself. The most important Afghanistan debate today is not the one in Congress or in opinion polls. It is the one inside President Obama’s head and heart. Even insiders very close to the action do not feel confident about predicting the outcome of that debate.

From my distant perch in the bleachers, I have even less confidence in forecasting the Obama debate. I will, however, predict that he will give us a clearer window into his thinking through some sort of Big Speech on Afghanistan within the month. I do not see how he can avoid doing so on the margins of deciding/announcing how many U.S. troops will exit Afghanistan starting July.