Can ASEAN hold together on the South China Sea?
In 2002, the ASEAN nations and China signed a "code of conduct" designed to avoid disputes over the South China Sea. Michael Mazza and Gary Schmitt argue here that an awful lot has changed since then–mostly in Beijing’s favor: China is much more powerful, both economically and militarily, than it was during the period that ...
In 2002, the ASEAN nations and China signed a "code of conduct" designed to avoid disputes over the South China Sea. Michael Mazza and Gary Schmitt argue here that an awful lot has changed since then--mostly in Beijing's favor:
In 2002, the ASEAN nations and China signed a "code of conduct" designed to avoid disputes over the South China Sea. Michael Mazza and Gary Schmitt argue here that an awful lot has changed since then–mostly in Beijing’s favor:
China is much more powerful, both economically and militarily, than it was during the period that led to the 2002 agreement; the Sino-ASEAN balance has tipped decidedly in China’s favour. Through most of the 1990s, ASEAN’s GDP was more or less equivalent to China’s. Today, China’s economy is more than three times as large. And China’s sustained military build-up has given it power projection capabilities that only a decade ago were non-existent. The results are twofold. First, foreseeing a growing military advantage, China sees little reason to negotiate a resolution in the near-term when it will soon be able to settle disputes on its own terms. Second, Beijing has increasingly drawn several ASEAN members into its orbit, with many of the continental Southeast Asian states in particular believing their ASEAN membership is now less a priority than keeping ties with China in good order.
China’s growing power also discourages ASEAN’s obvious leaders, Indonesia (ASEAN’s current chair) and Singapore (Southeast Asia’s most advanced economy), from leading. Concerned that they will anger Beijing by taking a strong stand on China’s aggressive behaviour towards their ASEAN partners in the South China Sea, Jakarta and Singapore are more than content to note their non-claimant status to the territorial disputes as a reason to take a back seat on the issue.
David Bosco is a professor at Indiana University’s Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies. He is the author of The Poseidon Project: The Struggle to Govern the World’s Oceans. Twitter: @multilateralist
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