Peace versus justice in Libya, round 12

Stewart Patrick (who’s got a great new blog at the Council on Foreign Relations site) weighs in on the debate about whether the ICC indictments in Libya are helpful or harmful. He sees little support for the notion that the indictment will dissuade Qaddafi from seeking exile and some evidence that it may help peel ...

By , a professor at Indiana University’s Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies.

Stewart Patrick (who's got a great new blog at the Council on Foreign Relations site) weighs in on the debate about whether the ICC indictments in Libya are helpful or harmful. He sees little support for the notion that the indictment will dissuade Qaddafi from seeking exile and some evidence that it may help peel off other members of his regime:

Stewart Patrick (who’s got a great new blog at the Council on Foreign Relations site) weighs in on the debate about whether the ICC indictments in Libya are helpful or harmful. He sees little support for the notion that the indictment will dissuade Qaddafi from seeking exile and some evidence that it may help peel off other members of his regime:

[A]n argument can be made that the warrant will hasten rather than delay Qaddafi’s departure from power, because it is yet another step in delegitimizing his rule. The warrant not only condemned Qaddafi, but also his son Saif al-Islam Gaddafi and his brother in law, the chief of military intelligence, Abdullah al-Sanoussi, for their alleged roles in the murder of hundreds of Libyan civilians since mid-February 2011. The threat of punishment for involvement in the Qaddafi regime’s criminal actions may well generate new high-ranking defections.

As with most of the arguments circulating about the likely effect of the indictments, this one is very plausible but, at this point, all but impossible to verify. We’re all stuck speculating madly. My frustration with the debate is that it falls along such predictable lines: Those generally supportive of the ICC pooh-pooh the notion that there could be any negative side effects to the court’s involvement while opponents of the ICC trumpet worst-case scenarios.   

David Bosco is a professor at Indiana University’s Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies. He is the author of The Poseidon Project: The Struggle to Govern the World’s Oceans. Twitter: @multilateralist

Tag: Libya

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