What’s up with those Jiang Zemin death rumors?

Given that less-than-stellar track record, the press is taking a very cautious approach to the latest rumors that former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin has died.

The Internet rumors spread after the 84-year-old Jiang Zemin– who held power for 12 years before handing control to President Hu Jintao in 2002 — didn’t appear last Friday at a celebration marking the 90th anniversary of the Communist Party’s founding. According to the Daily Telegraph, TV stations and newspapers in Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea all reported his death, but most outlets are being more careful. 

Today, China’s Xinhua News Agency quoted officials calling the reports “pure rumor.” Interestingly, they didn’t say he hadn’t died, said David Lampton, director of the China Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University.

Lampton, who made clear he didn’t know whether Jiang Zemin was alive or dead — and didn’t want to speculate — called China’s response a “non-denial denial.”

“It could be he is close to death and so they don’t want to say anything,” Lampton said.

Minxin Pei, director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College, agreed. “There must be something to the rumors, he must be ill, but I don’t think he’s dead yet,” he told Foreign Policy. “The Chinese government has never made up lies of that magnitude — saying someone is alive when they are actually dead.”

So if it’s true he passed away, why wouldn’t they come out and say it?

Lampton said there are a number of possible reasons.

“The regime may be trying to orchestrate how to play his role to the populace,” he said. “Because he was in power so long, there are lots of policy issues they need to work through.”

“The media systems are less controllable than in the past,” said Lampton. “They may want to get their propaganda ducks in a row before making an announcement.”

Whatever the case, Chinese Internet censors have gone into overdrive, the Telegraph reports.

“Searches for ‘Jiang Zemin’ in Chinese or simply ‘Jiang’ … drew warnings on Sina Corp.’s popular Twitter-like service that said the search was illegal,” according to the paper.

Lampton pointed out that the party is also in the midst of planning for Hu Jintao’s succession (presumably to Vice President Xi Jinping) and there could be a debate within the party about how to burnish Jiang Zemin’s legacy.

“Each generational leader is always fearful of being overshadowed by his predecessor. They don’t want to be diminished while you’re praising their predecessor.”