Last day: vote in the Kremlin Contest
What do a big oil deal and the arrest of an alleged murderer suggest about presidential politics? In Russia, where just one man will determine who rules for the next six years, they are among the only bits of evidence that political junkies can cobble together for insight into the country’s next election. In the ...
What do a big oil deal and the arrest of an alleged murderer suggest about presidential politics? In Russia, where just one man will determine who rules for the next six years, they are among the only bits of evidence that political junkies can cobble together for insight into the country's next election.
In the case of the first, Reuters' Doug Busvine writes that ExxonMobil's coup in the Russian Arctic this week suggests that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will return to the Kremlin in March. A raid by masked police on BP's premises does imply that Russia still favors Putin's tough-guy approach to dispute settlement.
But can't this simply mean what we all know -- that if you want to talk to the guy in charge, that would be Putin?
What do a big oil deal and the arrest of an alleged murderer suggest about presidential politics? In Russia, where just one man will determine who rules for the next six years, they are among the only bits of evidence that political junkies can cobble together for insight into the country’s next election.
In the case of the first, Reuters’ Doug Busvine writes that ExxonMobil’s coup in the Russian Arctic this week suggests that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will return to the Kremlin in March. A raid by masked police on BP’s premises does imply that Russia still favors Putin’s tough-guy approach to dispute settlement.
But can’t this simply mean what we all know — that if you want to talk to the guy in charge, that would be Putin?
After all, we also have Russia’s arrest of a ringleader in the 2006 murder of crusading Russian writer Anna Politkovskaya. If Russia’s dark side were truly ascendant, we are similarly seeing adherence to the views of President Dmitry Medvedev, who has publicly advocated the rule of law. Does Medvedev look unhappy in the photo above, taken a few days ago?
Putin will rule regardless of where he sits, even if it is Moscow mayor. But we are accustomed to such figures keeping their cards close to their chest until the last moment — it does not behoove them to tip their hand. What do you think — will Putin return, or will Medvedev remain in place?
It is not a requirement to be a Russia expert to make your guess in the Kremlin Contest. Today is the last day to vote. Send an email, using the link above my postage-stamp-size photo to the right on this blog. Name Russia’s next president, prime minister, and the date that Putin makes the announcement. Identify your small non-cash wager (current bets are a t-shirt, a mug, a book and glasses of wine).
More from Foreign Policy
Is Cold War Inevitable?
A new biography of George Kennan, the father of containment, raises questions about whether the old Cold War—and the emerging one with China—could have been avoided.
So You Want to Buy an Ambassadorship
The United States is the only Western government that routinely rewards mega-donors with top diplomatic posts.
Can China Pull Off Its Charm Offensive?
Why Beijing’s foreign-policy reset will—or won’t—work out.
Turkey’s Problem Isn’t Sweden. It’s the United States.
Erdogan has focused on Stockholm’s stance toward Kurdish exile groups, but Ankara’s real demand is the end of U.S. support for Kurds in Syria.
Sign up for Morning Brief
Foreign Policy’s flagship daily newsletter with what’s coming up around the world today. Delivered weekdays.
By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time.
