‘A constitution with no exits’

I distinctly remember coming across Martin Feldstein’s 1997 Foreign Affairs article on European monetary union and all but scoffing. He argued, in essence, that monetary union makes severe political tension and even military conflict more likely in Europe. The article struck me as absurdly gloomy — a cranky diatribe. A key insight from that article: ...

By , a professor at Indiana University’s Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies.

I distinctly remember coming across Martin Feldstein's 1997 Foreign Affairs article on European monetary union and all but scoffing. He argued, in essence, that monetary union makes severe political tension and even military conflict more likely in Europe. The article struck me as absurdly gloomy -- a cranky diatribe. A key insight from that article:

I distinctly remember coming across Martin Feldstein’s 1997 Foreign Affairs article on European monetary union and all but scoffing. He argued, in essence, that monetary union makes severe political tension and even military conflict more likely in Europe. The article struck me as absurdly gloomy — a cranky diatribe. A key insight from that article:

A critical feature of the EU in general and [monetary union] in particular is that there is no legitimate way for a member to withdraw. This is a marriage made in heaven that must last forever. But if countries discover that the shift to a single currency is hurting their economies and that the new political arrangements also are not to their liking, some of them will want to leave. The majority may not look kindly on secession, either out of economic self-interest or a more general concern about the stability of the entire union. The American experience with the secession of the South may contain some lessons about the danger of a treaty or constitution that has no exits.

Suffice to say that his take is looking less outlandish today, with senior European officials making pretty similar warnings.

David Bosco is a professor at Indiana University’s Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies. He is the author of The Poseidon Project: The Struggle to Govern the World’s Oceans. Twitter: @multilateralist

More from Foreign Policy

Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.
Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.

Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America

The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.

Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.
Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.

The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense

If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.

Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.

Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War

Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.

An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.
An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.

How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests

And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.