Analysts debate Morsi’s Egyptian military reshuffling

After Sunday’s surprising move by Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi to unseat the country’s top generals, analysts are debating Morsi’s motivations and the ramifications of the reshuffling. Many said they believed Morsi had been planning the move, but siezed on the military’s failures  in recent attacks on the Sinai as the opportunity for revamping what had been the ruling military council. Some saw it as a "soft coup" against the remnants of ousted President Hosni Mubarak’s regime. Others suspect that the new president reached a deal with junior military leaders wishing to restore the armed forces’ credibility while also ensuring the military’s privileged position and enhancing their own careers. With the forced retirements of Defense Minister Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and Chief of Staff Sami Anan, and the revocation of the constitutional declaration, Morsi solidified his executive and legislative powers, thereby shifting control from the military. Opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood dominated government have called for protests on August 24. 

Syria

Syria’s Ex-Prime Minister Riyad Farid Hijab made his first public appearance since his defection to Jordan last week. At a televised news conference in Amman, Hijab said the regime of Bashar al-Assad is falling, stating, "The Syrian regime only controls 30 percent of Syria’s territory. It has collapsed militarily, economically, and morally." Meanwhile, new clashes were reported in Damascus and Aleppo, a day after opposition fighters downed a government fighter jet, raising questions over whether the opposition has the capability of challenging the regime’s control of the sky. Conversely, the Syrian government insists a technical failure caused the jet to crash. The United States, Britain, and France have changed their policy on assisting the opposition shifting from a focus on the Syrian National Council (SNC) toward building direct links with separate internal opposition groups. The western countries are concerned over the SNC’s inability to unite the opposition and fear funds have been diverted toward extremist Islamic groups. Some veteran Libyan rebels, who successfully fought to overthrown Muammar al-Qaddafi last year, are also offering their assistance to Syrian opposition groups, traveling to the war-torn country offering training and communications support. In aims to apply greater pressure on the Syrian regime to end violence, world Muslim leaders are meeting in Mecca to discuss suspending Syria from the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Iran has maintained it is against the suspension.

Headlines  

• Thousands of Tunisian women protested moves by the Islamist government they fear will restrict their rights, including referring to women in the draft constitution as "complementary to men."
• Prime Minister Netanyahu has appointed Avraham Dichter, former security minister and head of Israeli intelligence, as civil defense minister amid heightened concerns of an Israeli strike on Iran.
• Iran has opened up to foreign aid facing criticism that relief efforts have been inadequate for residents of northwestern Iran hit by two deadly earthquakes over the weekend.

Arguments & Analysis 

‘Light at the End of their Tunnels? Hamas & the Arab Uprisings‘ (International Crisis Group)

"Hamas never has faced such large challenges and opportunities as presented by the Arab uprisings. It abandoned its headquarters in Damascus, at much cost to ties with its largest state supporter, Iran, while improving those with such U.S. allies as Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. Asked to pick sides in an escalating regional contest, it has sought to choose neither. Internal tensions are at new heights, centring on how to respond to regional changes in the short run. Leaders in the West Bank and exile tend to believe that with the rise to power of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood in particular and the West’s rapprochement with Islamists in general, it is time for bolder steps toward Palestinian unity, thereby facilitating Hamas’s regional and wider international integration. The Gaza leadership by contrast is wary of large strategic steps amid a still uncertain regional future. These new dynamics – Islamists’ regional ascent; shifting U.S. and EU postures toward them; vacillation within their Palestinian offshoot – offer both Hamas and the West opportunities. But seizing them will take far greater pragmatism and realism than either has yet shown."

‘5 Things the Muslim Brotherhood’s ‘Countercoup’ Tells Us About Egypt‘ (Tony Karon, Time)

It’s Never as Bad as It Seems on Twitter; Power in Egypt Is Not About Personalities; The Revolution Will Not Be Televised; Egypt’s Institutions Are Weak and Lack Legitimacy; For Egypt’s Civilian Politicians, the Choice Is Military Rule or Compromise with Detested Rivals

‘Israel and Iran‘ (The New York Times)

"Israeli leaders are again talking about possible military action against Iran. This is, at best, mischievous and, at worst, irresponsible, especially when diplomacy has time to run… Even so, Mr. Netanyahu’s hard-line government has never liked the idea of negotiating with Iran on the nuclear issue, and, at times, seems in a rush to end them altogether. On Sunday, the deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, told Israel Radio that the United States and the other major powers should simply "declare today that the talks have failed.""

‘A New Arab-Kurdish Conflict?‘ (Irena L. Sargsyan, The National Interest)

"The political crisis in Iraq that began after the departure of U.S. troops in December 2011 has heightened tensions between Baghdad and Erbil. The instability also has deepened the historic cleavages between Iraq’s two largest ethnic communities, the Arabs and the Kurds. Without a dialogue that aims to normalize relations between Baghdad and Erbil, the growing polarization could lead to an outbreak of Arab-Kurdish conflict. The civil war in Syria, which has begun to spread to the country’s eastern provinces, has added one more element to an already volatile situation in Iraq and may be the catalyst that causes year-long tensions to ignite."

–By Jennifer Parker and Mary Casey