A gloomy look at post-NATO Afghanistan
The NATO Defense College has just published the conclusions of a summer confab that assessed NATO’s evolving role in Afghanistan and examined how the alliance can help ensure stabilityafter its combat role there ends. The conference drew on the perspectives of a group of uniformed officers, policy analysts, and academics from a variety of NATO ...
The NATO Defense College has just published the conclusions of a summer confab that assessed NATO's evolving role in Afghanistan and examined how the alliance can help ensure stabilityafter its combat role there ends.
The NATO Defense College has just published the conclusions of a summer confab that assessed NATO’s evolving role in Afghanistan and examined how the alliance can help ensure stabilityafter its combat role there ends.
The conference drew on the perspectives of a group of uniformed officers, policy analysts, and academics from a variety of NATO countries. The report that resulted uses calm language but paints a dark picture of the alliance’s committment after its current mission–the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)–ends in December 2014. "It is clear that ISAF as an organization will end on December 31, 2014. But the contours of a new NATO mission have yet to take form."
The report is skeptical that NATO will be able to continue advising Afghan military and security forces at the level of individual units. "Advisers at the tactical level…will require force protection, medical evaluation, quick reaction forces, tactical logistics and other support that would translate into a level of resource that may not be supportable." Instead, it’s likely that NATO will advise Afghan security forces only at the headquarters and ministry levels.
There’s no doubt that bolstering the Afghan government after ISAF ends will involve bucketfuls of cash; the report predicts that Kabul won’t be able to count on major revenue of its own until 2020 at the earliest. Given this, the Afghan authorities will need at least $3-4 billion annually, and that’s not even counting security. It’s not at all clear that the political will to sustain that level of support exists:
[N]ations will struggle to justify continued support to Afghanistan as other domestic, financial and security issues compete for priority. It remains to be seen how much political leadership will be demonstrated to continue the new NATO mission in Afghanistan and how much funding will be provided during the continuing economic crisis.
Officially, NATO is on a glide path toward handing authority to a strengthened and capable Afghan government with whom the alliance will maintain an "enduring partnership." The reality, this report suggests, is far less reassuring.
David Bosco is a professor at Indiana University’s Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies. He is the author of The Poseidon Project: The Struggle to Govern the World’s Oceans. Twitter: @multilateralist
More from Foreign Policy
Can Russia Get Used to Being China’s Little Brother?
The power dynamic between Beijing and Moscow has switched dramatically.
Xi and Putin Have the Most Consequential Undeclared Alliance in the World
It’s become more important than Washington’s official alliances today.
It’s a New Great Game. Again.
Across Central Asia, Russia’s brand is tainted by Ukraine, China’s got challenges, and Washington senses another opening.
Iraqi Kurdistan’s House of Cards Is Collapsing
The region once seemed a bright spot in the disorder unleashed by U.S. regime change. Today, things look bleak.
Sign up for Morning Brief
Foreign Policy’s flagship daily newsletter with what’s coming up around the world today. Delivered weekdays.
By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time.
