Policy Chief Jim Miller Explains the Pivot, Defends the Reset

Welcome to Thursday’s edition of FP’s Situation Report. Today marks the one-year anniversary of the end of the military’s Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy. Follow me @glubold or hit me anytime at gordon.lubold@foreignpolicy.com.

The pivot to the Pacific is as much about China as it isn’t. The Pentagon often skirts the issue of what’s driving the "rebalancing" to Asia, saying it’s not really about China even when everybody knows it is. But in an exclusive interview with Situation Report and E-Ring’s Kevin Baron in his Pentagon office Wednesday, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Jim Miller insisted that the Pentagon is really trying to make long-term investments in a region where the U.S. has broad political, security, and economic interests. And yes, it is also about an effort to create as much of a partnership with China as possible.

"China is a rising power and we acknowledge and welcome its rise and want to both, through what we do bilaterally and what we to help provide an environment where that is successful, where we both take advantage of where we can both work together," said Miller, the thoughtful but soft-spoken policymaker hand-picked by his predecessor, Michele Flournoy. "And where there are potential friction points, that we have both a political relationship and a mil-to-mil relationship where we can have those conversations and reduce any possibility of misadventure."

The U.S. is building training relationships in the Philippines, for example, and proudly announced this week that it had reached an agreement with the Japanese to deploy the MV-22 Osprey there. Sixty percent of U.S. naval assets will be in the region by 2020. The Air Force will deploy some of its "best stuff" to the region, Miller said. And Marines may deploy in larger numbers to Darwin, Australia in the coming years. (And in the purple spirit, the Army’s got South Korea.)

The U.S. military wants to engage with China, but it has to be a two-way street, one commander said. Engagement with the militaries in Asia, including China’s, is vital to the pivot to the East. And the U.S. does invite China to events, exercises, and other forums. But it doesn’t always feel the love in return: sometimes, the U.S. is waiting for an invite from the Chinese that doesn’t seem to come, said Gen. Herbert "Hawk" Carlisle, commander of "PACAF," or the Pacific Command’s air component. But engaging them is vital, we were told. "The words that are always used are ‘engage but hedge,’" he said at a media roundtable at the Air Force Association’s annual conference outside Washington yesterday. "You want to engage with them and we do, but there has to be a reciprocity to them."

On Afghanistan, Miller is "convinced that we have a lot of momentum." It’s a "bouncy road" in Afghanistan, to be sure, as the series of "insider attacks" has shown in the last months. But the U.S. is "shoulder-to-shoulder" with the Afghans, he said. "And with our allies and partners, ‘in together, out together;’ If we keep both of those in place, even as we reduce our force posture and increasingly shift the weight onto the Afghan shoulders, we — recognizing that it’s a hard conflict and that there will be continued challenges — I am optimistic about our prospects for success," he said.

The Pentagon continues to be "very concerned" by the Haqqani network and the threat it poses to Afghanistan, but still foresees a moment when such a group would enter into reconciliation talks. "And at the same time, at the point at which they are ready to enter into a reconciliation process and to meet those requirements, they would not be prescribed from doing so. And in our view it would be very much in their interest to do so." What’s Plan B? "Ultimately, they will have to make the calculation through, for a combination of reasons, that it makes sense of them to engage in that effort. And what we can do is work to create those conditions, including to show them that the other path for them is not going to be successful."

More of our interview with Miller on Kevin’s E-Ring:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s warning this week that Iran would have nearly enough bomb-grade uranium to build a nuclear weapon in six months doesn’t change the American assessment of the need for military action. http://bit.ly/OX1zJd

And the "reset" with Russia has worked, as evidenced by Russian cooperation on two national security priorities: supply routes into Afghanistan and economic sanctions on Iran. (Still to do: missile defense cooperation, Miller noted.) http://bit.ly/OX1zJd

Read the whole interview here: http://bit.ly/OI8YtI

The knives are coming out over Afghanistan. The combination of the wave of protests in Afghanistan over the anti-Islamic film and the suspension of some joint operations because of the "insider attacks" has created an inflection point for analysts to worry aloud about the international mission in Afghanistan. In "So Much for the Good War," Arif Rafiq writes on FP that the strategy in Afghanistan is a total failure. The recent suicide bombing by a woman affiliated with the Hezb-i-Islami, the group led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, is a sign that "the insurgents have the upper hand, their fight against the United States and Kabul government will continue, and Afghanistan is headed toward a messy, full-scale civil war." He continues with his upbeat assessment: a HIG negotiator says that peace talks are dead and that a series of local uprisings against the Taliban, discussed here recently by Gen. John Allen, ISAF commander, is an "ominous reminder" of the past. "What’s in store for Afghanistan is more war," Rafiq writes. http://bit.ly/P0O22i

ISAF public affairs in Kabul begins "24/7 ops" starting today. "It is a permanent change," according to an e-mail to reporters.

Changing course. Defense stalwart Rep. C.W. Bill Young, R-Fla., long a supporter of the war in Afghanistan, told the Tampa Bay Times it was time to bring the troops home. "I think we should remove ourselves from Afghanistan as quickly as we can," Young, chair of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, told the paper. "I just think we’re killing kids that don’t need to die." http://bit.ly/RlCPy9

Mullen and Gates got it wrong? Gordon Adams goes there. Adams says the two, who spoke this week about the national debt and national security, made errors that are "so widespread that it is almost impossible to penetrate the discussion with the correction." Read about their four mistakes here: http://bit.ly/OZPq5m

Back to China for a minute. It’s so stealth, reports Killer Apps’ John Reed. China rolled out its second "stealthy-looking fighter," the J-31, earlier this week. Gen. Carlisle, the chief of Pacific Command’s air component, acknowledged that China is "closing the stealth technology gap," but that China is still behind the U.S. "We’ve had an advantage in stealth for a number of years," Carslisle said at the AFA conference. "That kind of time [gap] will not occur again…. I think whatever advantages we have technologically will still be there, but they won’t last as long." http://bit.ly/OSwCE7

Panetta is starting to wrap up his trip to China after meeting Xi Jinping, greeting PLA officials, touring Chinese military facilities, and visiting a Chinese frigate. But members of the Pentagon press corps travelling with him didn’t get to accompany him on the ship. Instead, they were given ample opportunity to drink many Tsingtaos, we’re told.

RT worthy. @attackerman: You really wanted Panetta to say, "First I found Osama; now I found Xi Jinping!" http://1.usa.gov/S5QPMc 

When the World Didn’t End

• NYT: A year later, DoD says the policy allowing gays in the military is working. http://nyti.ms/Rym8jn
• The Hill: "DADT" policy controversy fades as divisive issue.  http://bit.ly/RBrIMg

Eleven Years and Counting

• CNN Security Clearance: What was the payoff for the surge? http://bit.ly/UrwksK
• VOA: Protests over Mohammad depictions continue, spread to Pakistan. http://bit.ly/P2Al2M
• BBC: Surprise! British service member gives birth after not realizing she was pregnant. http://bbc.in/R10Vft

No Rest for Unrest

• Reuters: Libyan brigade warns of "inferno" if U.S. intervenes. http://reut.rs/OCrmcS
• CS Monitor: Could the man associated with the film be in trouble? http://bit.ly/OGFQZr
• Reuters: U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Burns visits Libya.
• http://reut.rs/OGAXzo

Your Opinion Counts

• NYT: The Unmentionable War (Afghanistan). http://nyti.ms/T7YdIE
• WSJ: Putin does his own reset. http://on.wsj.com/QomkMW
• WaPo: Burma’s conciliator.http://wapo.st/T608gL

In Case you Were Sleeping

• NBC blog: Poll shows five-point drop for Obama on foreign policy. http://nbcnews.to/Qju033