Dunford in Afghanistan
JIEDDO positions itself for the long haul, another departure for another Pentagon personnel chief, Romney has 300 friends, and they’re all retired brass, Mattis for president and more.
Joe Dunford is in Afghanistan. The nominated and soon-to-be-ISAF-commander-if-the-Senate-confirms-him Marine general, Gen. Joe Dunford, is visiting troops in Afghanistan to get a better lay of the land before his confirmation hearings, likely later this fall.
Joe Dunford is in Afghanistan. The nominated and soon-to-be-ISAF-commander-if-the-Senate-confirms-him Marine general, Gen. Joe Dunford, is visiting troops in Afghanistan to get a better lay of the land before his confirmation hearings, likely later this fall.
Dunford is conferring with another Marine, ISAF commander Gen. John Allen, who will be making recommendations to President Obama for American troop strength in Afghanistan, probably sometime next month. It is unclear what he’ll recommend. But the water cooler wisdom dictates that he’s expected to say he wants to keep as many of the 68,000 troops there now as he can. Observers tell Situation Report they think that means that if he recommends keeping those troops through the 2013 fighting season — November 2013 — then Afghanistan’s security forces have a real chance at taking a real foothold. If the withdrawal begins early next year, they may not.
Allen will likely appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee for his own confirmation to a new job, that of SACEUR and commander of U.S. European Command, which will become a de facto hearing on his tenure in Kabul and the way ahead in Afghanistan.
Afghan Army commanders ‘get it’ on green-on-blue. An Afghan National Army commander, visiting the Pentagon Wednesday, said the attacks are worrisome and the Afghans are doing what they can to stop them. But most of them are not true insider attacks as much as they are the result of non-insurgent issues between Afghan and American troops.
Afghan National Army Maj. Gen. Sayed Malook Akbari, commanding general of the 215th Corps: "I do not deny also that the enemy infiltrates among us and they do recruiting of our soldiers and they turn them against us," he told the E-Ring’s Kevin Baron. But Akbari claimed that such infiltration was behind only three or four out of 38 attacks in his area, with the rest being private fights or disgruntled troops. They are, however, effective, he admitted. "It’s creating a very untrustworthy type of environment among us and coalition forces."
Akbari said he has two bigger worries: having enough equipment for when international forces pull out. And Pakistan.
Read Kevin’s exclusive interview with the Afghan commanders: http://bit.ly/OKyXW3
What $47 million buys Americans: ABC News airs cellphone video of American security contractors in Kabul stoned, drunk, and out of control and in violation of U.S. Army rules: Brian Ross: "Was this an every night thing, like this?" Jorge Scientific whistleblower Kenny Smith: "No sir, it wasn’t every night. It was every other night."
Former Army Vice-Chief of Staff Pete Chiarelli, now an ABC News consultant: "Somebody missed something." http://abcn.ws/QtRVhY
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of Situation Report, where we try not to miss anything but sometimes we do. Follow me @glubold. Or hit me anytime at gordon.lubold@foreignpolicy.com. And sign up for Situation Report here: http://bit.ly/NCN9uN or just send me an e-mail and I’ll put you on the list.
Speaking of Afghanistan, the country is considered an "extreme outlier" when it comes to aid dependency, according to the World Bank, and that spells trouble as it approaches its own fiscal cliff as 2014 approaches and aid begins to dry up. Matthieu Aikins on FP: http://bit.ly/TdrGQU
Showing their true colors: 300 retired general and flag officers side with Romney. His military advisory council includes Tommy Franks, Jim Conway, Tim Keating, Hugh Shelton, PX Kelly, William Kernan, Steve Blum, Frank Libutti and more.
Entire list here: http://mi.tt/Ra5MtH
The Cable’s Josh Rogin’s post here: http://bit.ly/UF7gv
JIEDDO is showing more leg. The Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization, the group charged with countering the number one killer of American troops in Afghanistan, has been more vocal of late as it looks to adapt to the changing operational and budgetary environment. Although its leaders have briefed their important but, by definition, secretive work over the years, the organization seems more willing to speak out about what it’s doing. Lt. Gen. Michael Barbaro, who heads the organization, appeared at the Atlantic Council yesterday to brief a small group on what JIEDDO is doing and where it’s going. Situation Report sat in.
Afghanistan is the focus of JIEDDO, every day, Barbero said. But every month, there are 500 IED events, defined as IEDs that are found, cleared or detonated, outside Afghanistan. And since January 2011, there have been more than 10,000 "global IED events" in 112 countries and executed by more than 40 regional and transnational threat networks. IEDs are becoming a choice weapon in Mali, Algeria, Mauritania, Nigeria and Somalia. And, Barbero said, there is increased coordination between al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, al-Shabab and Boko Haram, in terms of sharing funds, training and explosive materials.
Nigeria’s Boko Haram, he said, is seeing a surge of activity, from 52 IED events in 2010 to 218 so far this year, ending in September. Ditto for Somalia: 182 IED events in 2010 to 246 this year (ending in September). And Syria? 118 IED events in 2011, causing 338 casualties. In 2012, 307 events have caused 2,086 casualties.
Top five countries with IED events, per month: Pakistan (100 IED events) Colombia, (67) India, (54) and Syria and Somalia (19).
Barbero: "This is a global threat, not exclusive to Afghanistan."
Mattis for president has 1,833 "likes." A former grunt is writing in CENTCOM commander Gen. Jim Mattis for president. Disappointed with Obama and Romney, the one-time corporal, Matthew Majors (an alias) likes the colorful Mattis for his unapologetic style: "I learned the hard way as a boot Marine that you got your behind whooped for lying," Majors told Marine Corps Times. "You don’t lie. You admit mistakes — and the general has done that when he’s reminded of some of the off-color comments he’s made — but he doesn’t make a habit of apologizing, either." http://bit.ly/RBZnXt
The Pentagon personnel chief has left the building. Again. Kevin also reports that Erin Conaton, personnel chief for the Pentagon, is taking a medical leave of absence. It is unclear why Conaton is leaving, although Pentagon officials said it was not for a mental health condition. The office is not without its problems.
Situation Report readers will remember that another former Pentagon personnel chief, Cliff Stanley, the retired Marine general, left the post a year ago this month after he was investigated for allegations of incompetence, waste, and mismanagement by the DoD Inspector General. Complaints came in that Stanley, who had a reputation for being difficult when he was in the Marine Corps, was creating, as a civilian personnel chief, a command climate of fear and mistrust. The personnel office at the Pentagon, considered to be one of the most powerful in the building, will be filled for now by Jessica Wright, currently serving as assistant secretary of defense for Reserve Affairs. http://bit.ly/RGrdoo
Five countries that threaten the U.S. besides Iran. Daniel Byman, writing on FP, says they include Pakistan, North Korea, China, Syria and the "arc of crisis," and, wait for it…the United States. Byman: "Okay, we don’t threaten ourselves. But sky-high budget deficits and an unwillingness to raise taxes an iota will inevitably lead to cuts in spending on defense and intelligence." http://bit.ly/WDCfMs
Noting
- Reuters: Peace envoy to Syria to work out Eid ceasefire. http://reut.rs/TvTKtp
- AP: Girl activist’s attacker had been arrested by military in 2009. http://bit.ly/T1ra2l
- Daily Beast: Malala out of a coma. http://bit.ly/T0Qf1u
Droning On
- NYT: al-Qaeda branch leader said to be dead in drone attack in Yemen. http://nyti.ms/RGqRux
- USAT: Seven militants dead in Yemen. http://usat.ly/PDB3Z1
- The Guardian: Drone strikes, a scandal, or a sideshow? http://bit.ly/WD9i3b
- Ynet: Iran: Drone infiltration proves Israel can’t defend itself. http://bit.ly/R1G9L9
The Threat at Home
- NBC NY: Suspected terrorist arrested in plot against the Federal Reserve. http://bit.ly/U5apt2
- AP: Family surprised by arrest of would-be Fed Reserve attacker. http://bit.ly/Ve1FCk
- Business Insider: Suspect almost let Islamic law stop the attack. http://read.bi/QvRAt1
Gordon Lubold is a national security reporter for Foreign Policy. He is also the author of FP's Situation Report, an e-mailed newsletter that is blasted out to more than 70,000 national security and foreign affairs subscribers each morning that includes the top nat-sec news, breaking news, tidbits, nuggets and what he likes to call "candy." Before arriving at FP, he was a senior advisor at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, where he wrote on national security and foreign policy. Prior to his arrival at USIP, he was a defense reporter for Politico, where he launched the popular Morning Defense early morning blog and tip-sheet. Prior to that, he was the Pentagon and national security correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor, and before that he was the Pentagon correspondent for the Army Times chain of newspapers. He has covered conflict in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries in South Asia, and has reported on military matters in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and Latin America as well as at American military bases across the country. He has spoken frequently on the sometimes-contentious relationship between the military and the media as a guest on numerous panels. He also appears on radio and television, including on CNN, public radio's Diane Rehm and To the Point, and C-SPAN's Washington Journal. He lives in Alexandria with his wife and two children. Twitter: @glubold
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