Think tankers unite – on the budget; Hagel brings home a good report card; Good or bad chemistry: Bash takes on Donilon’s critics; Keeping the pivot real: Wheels up for the Sec-Def; and a bit more.

By Gordon Lubold

Today, the results of a think-tank exercise to nudge the Pentagon. Top defense budget thinkers got together a week ago for a one-day "Strategic Choices Exercise," hosted by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, in which four think tank teams were asked to rebalance the Pentagon’s major capabilities against major budget cuts, and Situation Report got an exclusive peek. Each team was asked to build a strategy based on two scenarios: one, a $500 billion cut over the next 10 years, as directed by the current Budget Control Act, and another half that size, a $250 billion cut over 10 years. Each team used a "rebalancing tool" created by CSBA to make investment and divestment decisions under both scenarios using a set of more than 650 budget options to add or cut items from the DOD budget. For example, participants could decide if they wanted to cut retiring "legacy fighter" jets, buy additional destroyers, invest in directed energy research and development, or cut infantry combat training or DOD civilian personnel. "The idea was to see what specific divestments and investments each team would make, where they would take the risk and how well their strategies would work under the stress of budget cuts," CSBA’s Todd Harrison told Situation Report by e-mail. Today, each of the four teams will reveal their findings on an event on Capitol Hill.

What programs were cut by all think-tankers? "In many cases, all four teams made the same decision about what to cut and what to keep, even though they had different strategies," Harrison told Situation Report. Surface ships, ground forces, BRAC, the DOD civilian force, and unmanned aircraft, among others were all identified as cuttable. What’s more interesting: "[T]eams made many of the same cuts in force structure under the half Budget Control Act budget scenario as they did under the full BCA budget scenario. In other words, they cut just as deep in some areas even when the cuts were half as deep. This suggests that significant rebalancing is needed in DOD’s current mix of capabilities regardless of the level of cuts."

Curious what teams cut what programs? CSBA’s event today is hosted by former Undersecretary of the Navy Bob Work (now at CNAS), AEI’s Tom Donnelly, CSIS’s Clark Murdock and CSBA’s Jim Thomas, Andy Krepinevich and Todd Harrison and is open to the public. It’s on Capitol Hill in the Cannon Caucus Room at 1:30 p.m.

[Editor’s note: The original post indicated there were five teams. There are four. We regret the error.]

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Reports that the Pentagon is preparing for a no-fly zone aren’t true, the Pentagon says. A media report yesterday got everyone in a tizzy because it indicated the White House had asked the Pentagon to draw up plans for a no-fly zone in Syria. But the report was immediately hammered down by administration officials, who said the Pentagon is doing nothing more than the routine contingency planning it began last year. Citing two administration officials, the Daily Beast’s Josh Rogin wrote, in "Exclusive: Obama Asks Pentagon for Syria No-Fly Zone Plan," that planning efforts for a no-fly zone that would limit Syrian air operations were actively underway. "The White House is still in contemplation mode but the planning is moving forward and it’s more advanced than it’s ever been," one administration official told Rogin. But by evening the story had been updated with a statement from Col. Dave Lapan, a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying no new preparations were underway.

DOD has "full confidence" in its weapon systems. The Pentagon pushed back on yet another story yesterday, after the WaPo reported that Chinese hackers had peeked at weapons designs. Pentagon press secretary George Little: "The Department of Defense takes the threat of cyber espionage and cyber security very seriously, which is why we have taken a number of steps to increase funding to strengthen our capabilities, harden our networks, and work with the defense industrial base to achieve greater visibility into the threats our industrial partners are facing. Suggestions that cyber intrusions have somehow led to the erosion of our capabilities or technological edge are incorrect."

Killer Apps’ John Reed writes: "We’ve written plenty on allegations that Chinese hackers have stolen the plans for various U.S. weapons systems and have pointed out that China’s stealth jets bear a suspicious resemblance to U.S. stealth planes like the F-22 and F-35. Designs for the F-35 were reportedly hacked by Chinese spies in an incident that may have contributed to the redesign of the jet’s computerized maintenance system. Perhaps Little’s message is simply a display of false confidence, or perhaps the U.S. has made enough changes to programs accessed by hackers that it’s not worried, or maybe it simply fed them the wrong information."

An Afghanistan briefing today. Maj. Gen. Lee Miller, commander of Regional Command Southwest and the II Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward), will brief today from Afghanistan by video teleconference in the Pentagon briefing room at 10:30. Watch it live, here.

Making the pivot real: Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is headed to Singapore. Hagel leaves for Singapore today to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue, with a stop in Hawaii to visit U.S. Pacific Command and its commander, Adm. Sam Locklear.  Hagel will have dinner tonight with Locklear and his top military staff, including Deputy PACOM Commander Lt. Gen. Thomas Conant, a Marine; U.S. Marine Forces Pacific Commander Lt. Gen. Terry Robling; and U.S. Army Pacific Command commander Lt. Gen. Frank Wiercinski.

Why is Hawaii a special place for Hagel? We’re told that in July 1968, Sgt. Hagel and his brother Tom spent a week of R&R in Waikiki during the middle of his Vietnam tour, and the Hagel family made the long trip to Hawaii thanks in part to funds raised from their Nebraska community. The family all stayed at the Halekulani Hotel, where Hagel will be dining tonight.

A senior defense official on "the follow-through" on the pivot to Asia: "[W]hat we’ll be doing is looking at the follow-through. Last year, as you know, Secretary Panetta laid out sort of the strategic guidance and how it focused on the Pacific and, you know, what we — what came to be called the rebalance and how that was going. And there were a lot of things we talked about, like the beginning of rotational deployments of Littoral Combat Ships to Singapore. You know, that’s now happened, with the first arriving earlier this month, with the beginnin
gs of the rotations of Marines through Darwin. That’s now underway, with the second rotation happening, so it will be a lot of focus on follow-through."

Read the transcript of a defense official describing the trip yesterday, here.

Staffers on a plane: Chief of Staff Mark Lippert, Senior Military Assistant Lt. Gen. Tom Waldhauser, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asia Policy Peter Lavoy, Deputy ASD for South East Asia Vikram Singh, ASD for International Security Affairs Derek Chollet, Chief Speechwriter Jacob Freedman, Pentagon Press Secretary George Little, Assistant Press Secretary Carl Woog, Trip Director JP Eby. Reporters on a plane: AP’s Lita Baldor, Reuters’ David Alexander, AFP’s Mathieu Rabechault, Bloomberg’s David Lerman, WSJ’s Adam Entous, WaPo’s Ernesto Londono, LAT’s Ken Dilanian, VOA’s Luis Ramirez, the Pentagon’s Karen Parrish, Omaha World Herald’s Joe Morton.

How’s Hagel doing? Politico says pretty good. Somehow, Hagel has tamed his critics as he manages a range of tough challenges. In "Chuck Hagel Sailing Rather Than Flailing," Stephanie Gaskell writes: "Just three months ago, Chuck Hagel was flailing under fire on Capitol Hill, trying to convince his former colleagues in the Senate that he was the right man to run the Pentagon. Since then, the newly minted defense secretary has been dealing with massive budget cuts, tense flare-ups in Syria and North Korea and a widening sexual assault scandal that threatens to corrode the ranks. In spite of it all, he’s getting high marks — even from those who opposed him from the start."

Sen. Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican who was one of Hagel’s loudest opponents during confirmation: "I’m very pleased."

More from Gaskell: "He’s humble, especially around his highly decorated military leaders whom, as a former Army grunt, he holds in high regard. He once told Gen. Ray Odierno, the hulking Army chief of staff, that he ‘scared’ him and is fond of pointing out that even though he’s defense secretary, he feels outranked by those around him. Hagel has portraits of Dwight Eisenhower, Winston Churchill and Gen. George Marshall hanging in his office at the Pentagon. He has also decorated it with photos from his first overseas trips as defense secretary. Most days, he swims laps at the Pentagon pool to stay in shape but otherwise has been working nearly around the clock. Generally, he tends to hold smaller meetings than many of his predecessors and doesn’t travel with a large entourage." The rest of the story, here.

Taking aim at sequestration, literally. Air Force Toons, a comic strip published by the independent Air Force Times, laments how the budget crunch has reduced maintenance around the military. Namely, bathrooms. Punch line: "Dude, watch your aim." See the cartoon here.

Jeremy Bash, former chief of staff to Leon Panetta at CIA and at the Pentagon, takes on Tom Donilon’s critics. In a rebuttal piece just published on FP, Bash says that he’s argued with President Barack Obama’s National Security Advisor Donilon many a time — but Donilon always argued with him on the "merits" of the issue. Bash: "Tom has brought discipline, rigor, and a strategic approach to the NSS process. He directed his staff to prepare volumes of material — all of which he consumed and utilized. He chaired meetings of enormous consequence. He brought the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the secretary of defense into his office for small group discussions on the most sensitive national security issues from strategic cooperation with Israel to missile defense. He facilitated weekly meetings between my then-boss Secretary Panetta and the president, the kind of close access that is the cornerstone of a cabinet secretary’s authority. He engaged with foreign leaders to advance U.S. national security interests. He carefully studied intelligence products and brought intelligence leaders in for a weekly meeting to coordinate operations. And he did all of this while empowering his deputies, listening to cabinet officials, carefully preparing the president for major decisions, and exercising the sound judgment you would expect from the national security advisor."

And: "The critiques of Tom leveled in Mann’s article [see below] are off the mark. He has good political judgment, but he is not partisan," he wrote. "The no-drama teamwork of the Obama administration’s national security team is due in large measure to Tom’s leadership. Your future reporting should credit him with at least this."

ICYMI: Is there bad chemistry with Donilon? Bash was responding to a piece published on FP yesterday morning that raised questions as to whether Donilon is playing well with others, writes James Mann on FP. There are enough questions that WH Chief of Staff Denis McDonough contacted Mann in an unsolicited call to defend Donilon:

"Tom is a key advisor to the president. He has teed up over the course of these years many important decisions for the president and the country. I really appreciate the work that he does… I value Tom’s partnership and mentorship." Asked about bad chemistry between him and Donilon, McDonough said: "I think that’s untrue. I spend a lot of time even in my new job with Tom. I have the deepest respect for him, and the chemistry between us is kind of the way the chemistry is between a couple of other Irish-Americans." Mann:

"So why the sensitivities over Donilon’s role now? The growing controversy about his vast influence illustrates the fact that Obama’s foreign-policy team will face a major transition if, as widely reported, he steps down over the next year," Mann wrote. "Over the past half year, several present and former administration officials have urged this reporter to examine the powerful role Donilon plays as national security advisor, the extraordinarily tight leash he holds over the foreign-policy apparatus, his demanding treatment of staff, and the way he allegedly undercuts or elbows aside challenges to his power." Read the whole piece here.

Noting

• The Cable: Issa subpoenas documents for 10 current and former State officials.
• AP:  Terrorist Moktar Belmoktar clashed with al-Qaeda leaders over expense reports.
• Danger Room: Dios mio! The Pentagon’s latest weapon in Colombian drug war? Soap operas. 
• NYT: Obit: John Bierwirth, leader of Grumman in time of uneasy transition.
• The Daily Mail: Woman, 90, stumbles across diary of man she loved from WWII. 
• AP: Air Force grounds F-15s in Okinawa for inspections. 
• The Onion: Family concerned after John McCain wonders into Syria.