Egyptian security forces break up pro-Morsi protest camps

Egyptian security forces began clearing two camps of supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi in Cairo early Wednesday with armored vehicles, bulldozers, helicopters, tear gas, and snipers, igniting violent clashes. The interior ministry reported it had taken control of Nahda Square, near Cairo University, but clashes are continuing at the larger sit-in at Rabaa al-Adawiya Square, in northeast Cairo. The number of people killed is unclear, with the Muslim Brotherhood reporting up to 2,200 people killed and 10,000 injured and the health ministry reporting 16 people dead including five members of the security forces. The move against the Cairo sit-ins has sparked protests in several other Egyptian cities including Alexandria and Suez, as well as Assiut, Aswan, and Minya in Upper Egypt. Morsi supporters have allegedly attacked and set fire to at least five churches in southern Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood has urged Egyptians to take to the streets, and supporters began a march heading to Rabaa al-Adawiya Square. Security forces reportedly were "confronting" the march. The Egyptian government has stopped all train services in and out of Cairo "for security reasons and to prevent people from mobilizing." On Tuesday, interim President Adli Mansour announced at least 18 new provincial governors, removing Muslim Brotherhood members and replacing half of them with retired generals, and the others with men with police or army backgrounds.

Syria

A U.N. investigation into alleged chemical weapons usage in Syria has been further delayed because the United Nations and the Syrian government have yet to reach an agreement on security measures. The office of Angela Kane, the high representative for disarmament affairs, said they are hoping to come to an agreement soon on ways "to ensure the proper, safe and efficient conduct of the mission." Nearly two weeks ago, Syria said it would allow the team of U.N. experts access to three sites, including Khan al-Asal, to conduct an inquiry into suspected chemical weapons use in the Syrian conflict. The investigation will only attempt to determine whether chemical weapons were used, not who used them. According to the United Nations, the team, which will be led by Swedish scientist Ake Sellstorm, had prepared all logistical arrangements for the visit to Syria over the weekend. The United Nations said, "Once the government of Syria confirms its acceptance of the modalities, the mission will depart without delay."

Headlines

• Direct Israeli and Palestinian peace talks are set to begin Wednesday for the first time in three years after Israel released 26 Palestinian prisoners and cross border strikes were reported between Gazan militants and Israeli forces.
• Bahrain has tightened security and security forces have vowed to "forcefully confront" demonstrators as they plan to protest Wednesday on the second anniversary of the 2011 uprising. 

Arguments and Analysis

‘Great Expectations: Iran’s New President and the Nuclear Talks‘ (International Crisis Group)

"Much like his election was, the implications of Rouhani’s presidency are difficult to predict. Although his ability to shift the course of his nation’s nuclear diplomacy remains to be seen — along with the extent to which he wishes to do so — a few things seem clear: there is broad dissatisfaction with Iran’s current stance on this issue; the new president is persuaded that its strategy is not working; and the unexpected electoral outcome gives him a relatively potent mandate for change.

For now, the West appears to have adopted a wait-and-see posture, testing the degree of change induced by the elections and persuaded it has already tabled a reasonable offer that warrants a response or commensurate counter-offer. As a U.S. official put it, ‘we should not be negotiating with ourselves’ by putting forward one position after another in the absence of a commensurate Iranian response. This is understandable but could prove short-sighted. Even as the P5+1 awaits Rouhani’s first step, time will not stand still. Iran likely will acquire more low enriched uranium, increase the number of installed centrifuges — particularly of the more advanced models; and possibly complete the heavy water reactor in Arak. Neither the U.S. Congress nor, more importantly, Israel can be expected to sit passively; the former already is moving on heightened sanctions that could undermine Rouhani’s domestic position even before he has a chance to test his approach, and the latter has been speaking of Iran with renewed urgency."

‘A Return of Violent Islamist Insurgency in Egypt?‘ (Jerome Drevon, Sada)

"A Salafi jihadi organization — self dubbed ‘the Salafi Jihadi Current’ — has recently proclaimed ‘war’ on the Egyptian armed forces in support of Mohamed Morsi. Another Islamist group, Ansar al-Sharia, has declared that it is a duty for Egyptian Muslims to gather weapons and undergo military training to prepare for the next potential confrontation in Egypt. Despite such extreme declarations made by shadowy groups, it is unlikely that Egypt will witness a return to the violent insurgency that plagued the country in the 1990s.

The landscape of Egypt’s militant and former militant organizations has evolved significantly since the 1990s. Thus, the continued presence of actors that were in the past involved in a protracted conflict with the state does not, in and of itself, provide an accurate prediction for the direction that Egypt could take. Tellingly, one of the movements that used to be at the forefront of the violent opposition to the regime in Egypt, al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya (‘Islamic Group’), is in a fundamentally different situation today; it is highly unlikely that the group will use violence again in the near future. 

Politically, the group currently leads the Construction and Development Party, which has proven its political maturity and moderation in its positions for the past two years. Building on their rejection of violence, which resulted from the group’s ideological revisions of the past decade, leaders of the group have demonstrated their understanding of Egypt’s political scene after the 2011 revolution. For example, not only did they condemn the call for violence from the supporters of Salafi devotee Hazem Abu Ismail after the latter’s disqualification in last year’s presidential elections, they also refused to lend him or Mohamed Morsi their political support at the time, preferring to back the more comprehensive platform of moderate candidate Aboul Fotouh."

–Mary Casey & Joshua Haber