Best Defense
Thomas E. Ricks' daily take on national security.

SAMS study: No need to sweat and fret about Chinese aggression anytime soon

A monograph written at Ft. Leavenworth’s School for Advanced Military Studies finds that “the likelihood of military aggression in the immediate future is low.” The reasons for that conclusion, writes Maj. Corey Landrey, are that: China’s military doctrine is clearly focused on local and regional conflicts…. Though it has aggressive leaders within the PLA, they ...

Wikimedia
Wikimedia
Wikimedia

A monograph written at Ft. Leavenworth's School for Advanced Military Studies finds that "the likelihood of military aggression in the immediate future is low."

A monograph written at Ft. Leavenworth’s School for Advanced Military Studies finds that “the likelihood of military aggression in the immediate future is low.”

The reasons for that conclusion, writes Maj. Corey Landrey, are that:

China’s military doctrine is clearly focused on local and regional conflicts…. Though it has aggressive leaders within the PLA, they answer to the less aggressive leaders of the CCP. While the possibility exists for aggressive leadership to emerge in China, such transition of power would not occur without warning…. Combined with its reliance on international trade and manufacturing, China’s foreign debt holdings provide serious financial incentive to avoid conflict. China’s economy, while slowing its pace of growth, is still expanding at a rate much higher than that of developed countries, and the quality of life of its citizens continues to rapidly improve. It is also expanding its access to foreign resources with little resistance from the international community. China is also an active participant in all major international organizations, and one of only five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military from 1991 to 2008 for the Wall Street Journal and then the Washington Post. He can be reached at ricksblogcomment@gmail.com. Twitter: @tomricks1

More from Foreign Policy

A photo illustration shows Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden posing on pedestals atop the bipolar world order, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Russian President Vladamir Putin standing below on a gridded floor.
A photo illustration shows Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden posing on pedestals atop the bipolar world order, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Russian President Vladamir Putin standing below on a gridded floor.

No, the World Is Not Multipolar

The idea of emerging power centers is popular but wrong—and could lead to serious policy mistakes.

A view from the cockpit shows backlit control panels and two pilots inside a KC-130J aerial refueler en route from Williamtown to Darwin as the sun sets on the horizon.
A view from the cockpit shows backlit control panels and two pilots inside a KC-130J aerial refueler en route from Williamtown to Darwin as the sun sets on the horizon.

America Prepares for a Pacific War With China It Doesn’t Want

Embedded with U.S. forces in the Pacific, I saw the dilemmas of deterrence firsthand.

The Chinese flag is raised during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics at Beijing National Stadium on Feb. 4, 2022.
The Chinese flag is raised during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics at Beijing National Stadium on Feb. 4, 2022.

America Can’t Stop China’s Rise

And it should stop trying.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky looks on prior a meeting with European Union leaders in Mariinsky Palace, in Kyiv, on June 16, 2022.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky looks on prior a meeting with European Union leaders in Mariinsky Palace, in Kyiv, on June 16, 2022.

The Morality of Ukraine’s War Is Very Murky

The ethical calculations are less clear than you might think.