Best Defense

Thomas E. Ricks' daily take on national security.

SAMS study: No need to sweat and fret about Chinese aggression anytime soon

A monograph written at Ft. Leavenworth’s School for Advanced Military Studies finds that “the likelihood of military aggression in the immediate future is low.” The reasons for that conclusion, writes Maj. Corey Landrey, are that: China’s military doctrine is clearly focused on local and regional conflicts…. Though it has aggressive leaders within the PLA, they ...

Wikimedia
Wikimedia
Wikimedia

A monograph written at Ft. Leavenworth's School for Advanced Military Studies finds that "the likelihood of military aggression in the immediate future is low."

The reasons for that conclusion, writes Maj. Corey Landrey, are that:

China's military doctrine is clearly focused on local and regional conflicts.... Though it has aggressive leaders within the PLA, they answer to the less aggressive leaders of the CCP. While the possibility exists for aggressive leadership to emerge in China, such transition of power would not occur without warning.... Combined with its reliance on international trade and manufacturing, China's foreign debt holdings provide serious financial incentive to avoid conflict. China's economy, while slowing its pace of growth, is still expanding at a rate much higher than that of developed countries, and the quality of life of its citizens continues to rapidly improve. It is also expanding its access to foreign resources with little resistance from the international community. China is also an active participant in all major international organizations, and one of only five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

A monograph written at Ft. Leavenworth’s School for Advanced Military Studies finds that “the likelihood of military aggression in the immediate future is low.”

The reasons for that conclusion, writes Maj. Corey Landrey, are that:

China’s military doctrine is clearly focused on local and regional conflicts…. Though it has aggressive leaders within the PLA, they answer to the less aggressive leaders of the CCP. While the possibility exists for aggressive leadership to emerge in China, such transition of power would not occur without warning…. Combined with its reliance on international trade and manufacturing, China’s foreign debt holdings provide serious financial incentive to avoid conflict. China’s economy, while slowing its pace of growth, is still expanding at a rate much higher than that of developed countries, and the quality of life of its citizens continues to rapidly improve. It is also expanding its access to foreign resources with little resistance from the international community. China is also an active participant in all major international organizations, and one of only five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military from 1991 to 2008 for the Wall Street Journal and then the Washington Post. He can be reached at ricksblogcomment@gmail.com. Twitter: @tomricks1

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