Russian ministers visit Egypt in talks on defense cooperation

Russian and Egyptian officials have opened up talks on defense cooperation, coming amid tensions in U.S. and Egyptian relations. Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu are meeting with Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy, Defense Minister Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and interim President Adly Mansour in the highest-level Russian visit to Egypt in years. Lavrov expressed his support for a democratic transformation in Egypt and said, "We are quite confident that Egypt will overcome its current crises and put into consideration the interests of all political, ethnic, and religious blocs within society." Russian officials say the talks are focusing on military and technical cooperation, which could mean an arms deal. Beyond that, the Egyptian government hopes to broaden economic relations with Russia. In October, the United States announced a suspension of a large portion of its $1.3 billion in military assistance to Egypt. Russian and Egyptian officials however have downplayed strains with the United States. A spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said, "Our strategy is to expand, not to replace one party with another."

Syria

Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, addressing tens of thousands of Shiite Muslims commemorating Ashura in southern Beirut, said the group’s forces will remain in Syria fighting alongside Assad’s forces as long as necessary. He stated, "Our fighters are present on Syrian soil … to confront all the dangers it faces from the international, regional, and takfiri attack(s) on this country and region." Syrian forces conducted air raids in a residential area on the outskirts of the northeast Lebanese town of Arsal. The air raids came after a series of rockets were fired from Syria into the Nabi Sheet valley in eastern Lebanon. Meanwhile, the al Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has issued a call for mass mobilization in Aleppo, urging "all brigades and Muslims to face off against the enemy," joining six other Islamist rebel groups calling for people to stave off the "fierce offensive to reoccupy Aleppo." The statements came after a government advance, with the army overtaking a strategic base near Aleppo and securing territory around the city’s airport. In Damascus Thursday, two bombs reportedly exploded near the old city’s bazaar killing at least one person.

Headlines

• U.S. Secretary of State Kerry and Vice President Biden warned senators against a new round of sanctions on Iran, pushing for space for the Obama administration’s diplomatic efforts.
• A suicide bomber targeting Shiites observing Ashura killed at least 35 people in the eastern Iraqi city of al-Sadiya.
• Palestinian negotiators Saeb Erekat and Mohammed Shtayyeh have resigned citing lack of progress in Israeli and Palestinian peace talks.
• Iranian President Rouhani has banned the morality police from arresting women for perceived dress code violations, but he is meeting resistance from hardliners on many domestic reform efforts. 

Arguments and Analysis

‘The Saudi Spring?‘ (Tarek Osman, Project Syndicate)

"Many Saudis sense a wasted opportunity; despite sitting atop one of history’s most liquid fortunes, the country has failed to become an advanced economy. And Saudi Arabia’s large middle class is likely to respond to diminishing prosperity by calling for a more representative political system.

The problem is that the obvious challenges facing Saudi Arabia require a level of cohesion in the upper echelons of government that remains elusive. As the journalist Christian Caryl put it, ‘to say that historical or economic conditions predispose a country to embark on a particular path does not mean that its politicians will necessarily decide to take it.’

The continued absence of resolute action could easily drive Saudi Arabia toward irreversible decay. In such a scenario, the economy would gradually weaken, hampering the royal family’s ability to continue buying middle-class support, while enabling rebel groups in the east and the south to erode the government’s authority. This could cause Wahhabi religious and political doctrine to lose ground among young people and fuel regime infighting.

Ultimately, Abdulaziz bin Saud’s unification of the Kingdom in the late 1920’s could even be reversed, making the last eight decades an anomaly in the Arabian Peninsula’s long history of fragmentation. Such an outcome would effectively make Yemen and the rest of the Gulf states ungovernable, allowing the Sunni-Shia confrontation that is currently unfolding in the Levant to overwhelm the region."

‘How 24,000 new settlement homes allowed Netanyahu to save face‘ (Michael Omer-Man, +972 Magazine)

"In his condemnation of the 24,000 planned settlement units, Israel’s prime minister didn’t once mention Palestinians or the peace talks. Instead, Netanyahu explained that announcing one of the largest-ever tenders for new settlement construction ‘creates an unnecessary confrontation with the international community at a time when we are making an effort to persuade elements in the international community to reach a better deal with Iran.’

And it’s pretty likely that Netanyahu is telling the truth when he says he was unaware of the latest announcement ahead of time.

Housing Minister Uri Ariel, himself a settler, is at least bureaucratically responsible for the latest anno
uncement. Ariel is a senior member of Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home party, which firmly opposes a two-state solution and advocates annexing the majority of the West Bank. Bennett in the past has said that he has no problem with Netanyahu’s peace process, because he is certain it will fail.

What if he, or more likely, someone in his party, decided to try and ensure that the talks fail, to make Netanyahu look bad in front of the Americans and Palestinians and to fire a warning shot, reminding the prime minister that strong elements in his own party oppose the peace process and two-state solution."

–Mary Casey & Joshua Haber