FP’s Situation Report: Obama lays out plan; 475 more troops for Iraq but no boots on the ground; Is IS a danger to the U.S.? Mullen on the need to go green; and a bit more.
By Gordon Lubold with Nathaniel Sobel President Obama said the U.S. will lead an open-ended but limited effort, with allies, to roll back the threat posed by the Islamic State. Obama said airstrikes, an additional 475 troops – bringing the total to more than 1,600 there – a train-and-advise mission and the resolve of a ...
By Gordon Lubold with Nathaniel Sobel
By Gordon Lubold with Nathaniel Sobel
President Obama said the U.S. will lead an open-ended but limited effort, with allies, to roll back the threat posed by the Islamic State. Obama said airstrikes, an additional 475 troops – bringing the total to more than 1,600 there – a train-and-advise mission and the resolve of a coalition of the willing will ultimately "destroy" the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. He compared it to the much smaller scale operations in places like Somalia and Yemen in a speech that framed a strategy that could take years to implement, and many expect will need tweaking as that strategy is implemented in the coming days and weeks.
Obama: "We will hunt down terrorists who threaten our country, wherever they are… That means I will not hesitate to take action against ISIL in Syria, as well as Iraq…This is a core principle of my presidency: If you threaten America, you will find no safe haven."
Congressional reaction, below.
Saudi Arabia gives the green light for the U.S. Request for an anti-ISIS training program. The NYT’s Michael Gordon and Eric Schmitt: "The Saudi willingness to host a training program comes as Secretary of State John Kerry is preparing to fly to Jidda, Saudi Arabia, on Thursday morning for a high-level strategy session on how to counter the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The meeting that is being hosted by the Saudis will also include senior officials from Arab states in the Persian Gulf region, as well as Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq.
"A senior State Department official said a number of initiatives to weaken ISIS would be stepped up, including efforts to stop the flow of money to the terrorist group by cracking down on oil smuggling and curtailing contributions from private donors. On the military front, the State Department official said regional defense ministers would meet soon to discuss expanded basing and overflight rights so the United States and other nations could broaden their airstrikes against ISIS." More here.
The Saudis are tip-toeing into the war on ISIS. Newsweek’s Jeff Stein: "…the prospect of Saudi pilots banking their F-15s into dive-bombing runs against ISIS targets in Iraq or Syria, is a fantasy. Just getting the king to issue a denunciation of the neck-slicing savages was considered a major victory in official Washington." More here.
But, remember, the Saudi’s hands aren’t totally clean. In the NYT this summer, CFR’s Ed Husain opined that "Saudi Arabia created the monster that is Salafi terrorism," here. And in June, the Daily Beast’s Josh Rogin wrote that ISIS "was built and grown for years with the help of elite donors from American supposed allies in the Persian Gulf region," here.
Psst: There already are troops on the ground fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Thing is, they’re from Iran. FP’s Kate Brannen: "…Terrified at the prospect of giving the Sunni-led militants a permanent foothold inside Iraq, the Shiite government in Tehran is openly providing weapons, intelligence, and military advisors to Baghdad and the array of Shiite militias fighting alongside the beleaguered Iraqi military. Iran denies having combat troops inside Iraq, but a U.S. official familiar with the matter said that Iran has at times had hundreds of ground forces fighting alongside the Iraqi soldiers and militiamen." More here.
Analysis: By limiting U.S. goals in Iraq and Syria, the president makes less likely the exit he so desperately wants. FP’s Rothkopf: "…Seeking, as ever, to avoid the perceived mistakes of the Bush era and to minimize risks, Obama laid out a plan that called for a coalition of nations to pool their resources to fight the Islamic State. It had four elements: airstrikes, more support for ground forces (not American), ramped-up efforts to fight terrorism, and increased humanitarian assistance. Obama announced that he would chair a U.N. Security Council meeting to win international support for the effort and that Secretary of State John Kerry will travel the world seeking to expand the coalition and deepen its capabilities and resources.
"…Yet the reality is that was that while Barack Obama is acutely aware of, and inclined to avoid, the pitfalls of his predecessors — and even as he took a strong stand not just against terror but against his own past policies in Syria and Iraq — the speech has raised as many questions as it answered: particularly as he has yet to acknowledge many other of his administration’s prior errors and misfires." More here.
@PentagonPresSec: ?#Secdef‘s full statement on President’s strategy to defeat ISIL here.
Tweets from FP staff last night:
@djrothkopf: Tonight, Barack Obama took his most solid stance to date against his previous policies in Syria and Iraq.
@glubold: obama uses "destroy" again but it’s not clear he knows what that really means exactly
@yochidreazen: Obama to Congress, translated: I don’t need your votes and won’t ask your permission, but I would like if you gave me your support anyway
@K8brannen: Obama’s bottom line: "It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign soil."
How do others see it overseas?
Jordan’s King Abdullah renews support for anti-terror efforts. The Jordan Times’ story, here.
Terror and turmoil top the agenda in Jeddah today. Arab News’ Ghazanfar Ali Khan: "The war on terrorism, with special reference to the turmoil in the Middle East region, will top the agenda of US Secretary of State John Kerry’s talks in Jeddah on Thursday with the foreign ministers of 11 countries, including GCC states.?Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah held telephone talks with US President Barack Obama on Wednesday ahead of the key Jeddah meeting." More here.?
Netanyahu convened a special meeting yesterday to discuss the Islamic State’s threat to Israel. The Jerusalem Post’s story, here.
Rather than return to failed policies, the US must employ new strategies to defeat the Islamic State. Josh Batchelor for Al Jazeera, here.
The U.S. wants to win this war by outsourcing it. Murat Yetkin for Hurriyet, here.
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of Situation Report, where, like others, we remember that inconceivable day 13 years ago, the people who were lost then and since, and the distance we’ve traveled from that day, and, as last night’s speech reminds us – the long road ahead. If you’d like to be one of our subscribers, we’d love to have you. Sign up for Situation Report by sending us a note at gordon.lubold@foreignpolicy.com and we’ll just stick you on. Like what you see? Tell a friend. And if you have a report you want teased, a piece of news, or a good tidbit, send it to us early for maximum tease. And the more shovel-ready, the better. And hey! Follow us: @glubold and @njsobe4.
By the way, just how dangerous is the IS? The NYT’s Mark Mazzetti, Eric Schmitt and Mark Landler: "…as President Obama prepares to send the United States on what could be a yearslong military campaign against the militant group, American intelligence agencies have concluded that it poses no immediate threat to the United States. Some officials and terrorism experts believe that the actual danger posed by ISIS has been distorted in hours of television punditry and alarmist statements by politicians, and that there has been little substantive public debate about the unintended consequences of expanding American military action in the Middle East.
"Daniel Benjamin, who served as the State Department’s top counterterrorism adviser during Mr. Obama’s first term, said the public discussion about the ISIS threat has been a ‘farce,’ with ‘members of the cabinet and top military officers all over the place describing the threat in lurid terms that are not justified.’" More here.
Iranians believe that ISIS is an American invention. The NYT’s Thomas Erdbrink, here.
Will the President need a Plan B? Defense One’s Kevin Baron, here.
To defeat the Islamic State, follow the money. RAND’s Howard Schatz for Politico Magazine, here.
Ahead of POTUS’s speech yesterday, former DIA director Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn said that military force won’t beat IS in a war of ideas. Military Times’ Joe Gould, here.
John McCain’s wrestling match with former WH spox Jay Carney last night. Watch the clip (it was Carney’s first day on the job!), here.
86 days in and Obama 86’d the War Powers Resolution. FP’s Groll and O’Grady: "Eighty-six — that’s how many days have passed without President Barack Obama seeking congressional approval for his actions in Iraq, despite a decades-old law that forbids presidents from waiting so long to get lawmakers’ sign-off on military engagements. Nevertheless, Obama says he doesn’t need Congress’s go-ahead, and that’s just fine with most of Capitol Hill." More here.
@SenSchumer: @BarackObama speech hit the nail on the head showing strength & resolve that will convince the world, our allies & ISIS we mean business.
@ChrisMurhpyCT: The executive’s Article II military authority is not, cannot be, limitless. Only Congress can authorize war on ISIS.
House Speaker John Boehner: "The president has finally begun to make the case the nation has needed him to make for quite some time… A speech is not the same thing as a strategy, however."
Sen. Bernie Sanders: "I believe that Congress must become increasingly engaged in the Iraq-Syria crisis. It is my understanding that the president does have the executive power to launch air strikes… He does not have the power to send combat troops into harm’s way without congressional authorization." More here.
More members’ reactions to Obama’s speech compiled by the AP, here.
In authorizing airstrikes against the Islamic State, Obama is relying on a law he says he wants repealed. FP’s Groll: "President Barack Obama’s plans to ramp up U.S. airstrikes against Islamic State targets inside Iraq and potentially launch new ones inside Syria rely on a thirteen-year-old law authorizing military force against al Qaeda and its affiliates that he has publicly stated he would like to see repealed.
"In a landmark speech last year in which he pledged to take the United States off a ‘perpetual wartime footing,’ Obama said that he would work with Congress to ‘refine’ and ‘ultimately repeal’ the 2001 Authorization to Use Military Force, or AUMF, a measure hastily passed in the chaotic, fear-filled days following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. That measure authorized ‘all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons’ responsible for the attacks." More here.
Meantime, the Pentagon is reprogramming money to help pay for Ukraine, Iraq and countering Ebola. FP’s Kate Brannen lays it out: "…All in all, the Defense Department wants to shift $2.6 billion among its accounts to respond to new national security priorities. But world events are not the only driving force behind the request. The Pentagon intends to move $1.5 billion so it can buy fifth-generation fighter aircraft that won’t be available in time to respond to what’s going on in Africa or the Middle East. Still, the reprogramming request, which comes just ahead of this fiscal year’s end, provides plenty of insight into Pentagon planners’ thought process." More here.
After Jeddah, Kerry’s next stop is Ankara, tomorrow. Hurriyet’s story: "…Kerry’s visit is the second high-ranking visit to Turkey this week after Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel’s trip to the Turkish capital. Turkish and American officials are discussing the models of the former’s contribution to the anti-ISIL campaign." More here.
Who’s where when today – The WH’s schedule: This morning, the President, the Vice President, the First Lady, and White House staff will gather on the South Lawn of the White House to observe a moment of silence to mark the 13th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks… Afterward, the President and First Lady will travel to the Pentagon Memorial to attend the September 11th Observance Ceremony… In the evening, the President and First Lady will participate in a service project in the Washington, DC area to commemorate the September 11th National Day of Service and Remembrance.
The Pentagon’s schedule: Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey provide remarks at the 9/11 Pentagon Observance at 9:30 a.m. at the Pentagon Memorial… Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work attends the 9/11 Pentagon Observance at 9:30 a.m. at the Pentagon Memorial… Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey provide remarks at the 9/11 Observance for Pentagon Personnel at 1 p.m. in the Pentagon Center Courtyard… Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ray Odierno visits USAG Fort Leavenworth for a library dedication in honor of the late Rep. Ike Skelton.
House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon delivers remarks on "A plan for the United States to help defeat ISIS" at AEI this morning. Deets here.
Georgetown’s Colin Kahl speaks at the CFR lunchtime event: "What’s Next for Iraq and the Middle East." Deets here.
Earlier this week, Mike Mullen and a bunch of other uniforms and nat-sec luminaries appeared at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ new HQ building to talk about… the environment. It might seem counterintuitive but it isn’t really. One of former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen’s abiding concerns is not only the debt the U.S. carries, but the impact that environmental sustainability and the scarcity of resources has on national security and foreign policy (for example, the lack of water in Yemen). Tuesday night at CSIS, the World Wildlife Fund threw a launch party for a new book, "In Pursuit of Prosperity: U.S. Foreign Policy in an Era of Natural Resource Scarcity," edited by David Reed of the World Wildlife Fund and pubbed by Routledge.
Mullen, at the end of the book’s foreword: "This book is designed to help us get beyond the political rhetoric and move the United States into the premier leadership position glob ally on sustaining our natural resources and a way of life respectful of them such as to inspire other world leaders to do the same. We simply cannot continue on the current path for its is a path leadering to instability, conflict, global decay and crisis, which will not support the peoples of the world."
Mullen’s kicker: "Is this the most important national security issue of our time? If not, you will have to prove it to me based on the facts."
DC Seen: Carter Ham, Carol Browner, Rear Adm. Jim Foggo, Adm. John Richardson, Col. J.P. McGee, Col. Brad Mitchell, Rich Verma, Brig. Gen. Scott Howell, Sally Donnelly, John Hamre, Sarah Chayes and WWF’s Neville Isdell and David Reed among others.
The Air Force stands alone in requiring atheists to say ‘so help me God.’ Military Times’ Stephen Losey, here.
Extended Play –
Bam! The US Naval Academy’s John Limbert gives Henry Kissinger a geography lesson: "…Now Kissinger is talking not only of belts, but also of Persian empires. He told NPR that Iran is a ‘bigger problem’ for the US than the vicious Islamic State, which is commonly referred to as ISIS. ‘There has come into being a kind of a Shia-belt from Tehran through Baghdad to Beirut,’ said Kissinger. ‘And this gives Iran the opportunity to reconstruct the ancient Persian Empire, this time under a Shia label.’
"Nonsense. As a scholar of history and a Harvard PhD, Kissinger should know better. He once said that the United States had more common interests with the Islamic Republic than with many of its friends. That view is much more sensible than beating drums about some imaginary threat of a new Persian empire and a Shia belt.
"No one has been so misinformed about Iran since Mitt Romney, during his 2012 presidential campaign, told us that ‘Iran needs its alliance with Syria to secure access to the sea.’ Perhaps Harvard, where both these men studied, has some basic problem teaching Iran’s history and geography. It appears that Romney never realized Iran already has over 1,000 miles of coastline on the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. As for Kissinger, he apparently never learned that there has been no ‘Persian Empire’ ruling beyond the Iranian plateau for over thirteen centuries." More here.
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