Authorization to Arm Syrian Rebels Uncertain Hours Ahead of Vote

Despite broad support for President Barack Obama’s request to arm and train Syrian rebels to combat the Islamic State among House Republican and Democratic leaders, a sizeable chunk of rank-and-file lawmakers remain deeply skeptical of the plan just hours ahead of a House floor vote, making backers of the Syrian rebels intensely nervous. 

Bucking their leaders, a cohort of anti-war progressives and libertarian conservatives oppose the administration’s plan to enlist moderate Syrian rebels in America’s fight against Islamic State militants, or ISIS or ISIL, in Syria, citing a variety of concerns. Because a "no" vote would deliver an embarrassing blow to the White House, top Democrats are working hastily to convince junior members to support the proposal.

"There’s whipping going on on both sides and it appears far from certain," said a congressional aide.

Though GOP leadership aides were confident that they had the votes — somewhere in the mid-to-high 200 range — others speculated that less than half of House Democrats would support the bill, which could doom it.

"It’s much tougher for Democrats because they’ve basically positioned themselves as the anti-war party that got us out of Iraq," Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a member of the defense subcommittee on Appropriations, told Foreign Policy. "Now they have a president who’s effectively declaring war and he’s asking for authority and I think you can see it on the floor, it’s a very tough issue."

In an interview, New York’s Steve Israel, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman, said a range of top Democrats were working to gather votes for the president’s plan, which would train some 5,000 Syrian rebels in the first year at facilities in Saudi Arabia.

Israel specifically cited Maryland’s Dutch Ruppersberger, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, New York’s Nita Lowey, the ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, New York’s Eliot Engel, the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., as key backers of the plan. "It cuts across a broad range of members," he said. 

Publicly, Pelosi has sought to downplay her role in lobbying support for the war effort. "We just don’t whip war votes," she told reporters, calling the decision a "vote of conscience" for her colleagues.

By all counts, both opposition and support for the bill will be bipartisan. Most Hill watchers expect the legislation to pass, but many were caught off guard by the strength of the Democratic opposition to the plan.

On the Republican side, libertarian firebrand Justin Amash of Michigan is raising objections to the plan, which is expected to take the form of an amendment to a government funding bill known as a continuing resolution. "Today, I will vote against the amendment to arm groups in Syria," he wrote on his Facebook page. "There is a wide misalignment between the rhetoric of defeating ISIS and the amendment’s actual mission of arming certain groups in the Syrian civil war."

According to his chief of staff, Will Adams, he’s not doing a formal whip, but he’s "obviously" talking to his colleagues about the issue. "I’d be surprised if there were not more than 50 Rs who vote against it," he said.

On Tuesday, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) predicted that the legislation would pass. "I frankly think the president’s request is a sound one," he told reporters. "I think there is a lot more we need to be doing, but there is no reason for us not to do what the president asked us."

An important bloc to watch among Democrats is the Congressional Black Caucus, which is traditionally dovish on military intervention. A number of CBC members interviewed on Wednesday said they had not made their minds up yet.

In an effort to reassure war-weary Americans, Obama spoke at MacDill Air Force Base in Florida on Wednesday and ruled out deploying ground combat forces. "I want to be clear: The American forces that have been deployed to Iraq do not and will not have a combat mission," he said. 

A vote on the bill is expected later on Wednesday.