Obama Says U.S. Underestimated Islamic State Militants as Strikes Continue

In an interview with "60 Minutes" broadcast on Sunday, President Barack Obama acknowledged that U.S. intelligence agencies had underestimated the Islamic State group and overestimated the capacity of the Iraqi army to fight extremists. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported U.S.-led strikes hit four provinces in Syria overnight. The activist group said some of the strikes hit grain silos, killing a number of civilian workers. On Sunday, air raids believed to have been conducted by the coalition hit three makeshift oil refineries in northern Syria. Islamic State militants have intensified attacks on the town of Kobani (Ayn al-Arab). The assault has forced over 150,000 Syrian Kurds to flee to nearby Turkey over the past week. U.S.-led forces launched strikes east of the town on Saturday. Iraqi troops, backed by air strikes, appear to have stopped an advance by Islamic State militants on the town of Ameriyat al-Falluja, about 25 miles from the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. Meanwhile, the leader of al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, al-Nusra Front, released a message Sunday saying U.S.-led strikes would not defeat Islamic State militants and vowing to retaliate against Western countries.  

Headlines

• Attacks targeting Houthi fighters in Yemen killed an estimated 20 people Sunday meanwhile hundreds of protesters gathered in Sanaa demanding the Houthis leave the capital.
• Addressing the United Nations, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas criticized Israel for the war in Gaza and urged the U.N. to push for a deadline to end Israeli occupation.
• Libya’s Tobruk-based parliament will hold talks with Misrata members of the House of Representatives, following the establishment of a new cabinet under Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni.
• An Egyptian court has delayed a verdict until November 29 in the retrial of former President Hosni Mubarak on charges of killing protesters and corruption.

Arguments and Analysis

‘Shifting balances of power in Yemen’s crisis‘ (Silvana Toska, The Washington Post)

"The transitional government that was established with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) brokerage in November 2011, which gave Saleh immunity from prosecution, was split equally between Saleh’s General Congress Party (GCP) and the former opposition bloc, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), of which Islah is the prominent member, while leaving out the Houthis. The Houthis rejected the transitional government, as well as Saleh’s immunity, feeling that none of their grievances had been addressed.

Therefore, not only did the transitional government not reflect the shifting balance of power in the country now that both the Houthis and Southern separatists represented large constituencies and militias, all formal political positions remained in the hands of the existing elites. The revolution left Yemen incredibly fractured: The military was split into various blocs (with part of the army loyal to Mohsen, who turned against Saleh during the 2011 protests, part of it under the authority of Saleh’s son, and another nominally under Hadi); the Houthis had complete control over vast areas of the North; and the state had virtually no control over the South. Even this is a simplified picture, which does not take into account areas under the control of Salafi groups or tribal associations. The revolution, therefore, brought about the devolution of Yemen from a relatively centralized (and highly corrupt and repressive) state into various virtual states-within-states."

‘President Sisi Goes to the United Nations‘ (Amy Hawthorne and Tarek Radwan, Atlantic Council)

"Despite Sisi’s optimistic narrative, his doth-protest-too-much speech left the impression that the Egyptian government still feels uncertain about its international image following Morsi’s overthrow. Sisi went to great rhetorical lengths to convince his UN audience of his legitimacy and the positive ‘reality’ of Egypt today. Yet the facts on the ground speak for themselves. Sadly for those Egyptians who want the international community to press for democracy, however, the ‘Egyptian exception’ is alive and well. Egypt’s geostrategic location, Sisi’s promises to restore stability and crush terrorism, and the domestic backing for his strongman style are compelling many world leaders to accept him and even deal with him enthusiastically, regardless of how he governs."

‘What the Isis jihadis lose in strength from the air strikes they may gain in legitimacy‘ (Hassan Hassan, The Guardian)

"Legitimacy for the fight against Isis cannot be achieved by simply having Sunni countries involved in it, but, rather, by addressing the true reasons that drove tens of thousands of Syrians to rise up against the regime.

Regardless of who is involved in the campaign, the perception is that the allies have overlooked the acts of the Assad regime over the past three years and quickly assembled a major international coalition against a group that the Syrian rebels have been fighting since last summer. Unless the strategy against Isis shifts to a broader one that appeals to the local communities, the fight against it is doomed."

— Mary Casey