FP’s Situation Report: America’s longest war could get longer; Australia to support airstrikes in Iraq; Netanyahu at the White House; anti-ISIS sitcoms; and a bit more.

By Kate Brannen and Nathaniel Sobel

With the signing yesterday of the bilateral security agreement in Afghanistan, the Obama administration can move forward (with a big sigh of relief) with its plans for withdrawing U.S. forces from the country.  Today, about 24,000 U.S. troops remain in the country and under the agreement, 9,800 will stay past this year. Under President Barack Obama’s current plans, all U.S. troops would leave by 2017.

But not everyone is breathing a sigh of relief. Senior Afghan and Pakistani officials, as well as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are urging Obama to reconsider. FP’s Yochi Dreazen and Gopal Ratnam: "Many senior military and civilian officials from the Afghan and Pakistani governments, however, fear that the Obama administration is pulling up stakes far too soon. In face-to-face meetings in Washington, Kabul, and Islamabad, representatives of the two countries have been pressing their American counterparts to leave more troops in Afghanistan beyond 2016. Sticking to the schedule laid out by Obama, they argue, would pave the way for the Taliban to conquer large portions of Afghanistan, just as Islamic State militants have done in Iraq."

A senior Afghan official to FP: "You can have well-designed plans, but the future is hard to predict and you have to be willing to adjust those plans based on the reality of what’s taking place on the ground. The situation in Afghanistan in 2014 is very difficult, and we have been asking our American friends to re-evaluate their plans for leaving Afghanistan so you don’t see what has happened in Iraq happen there as well." More here.

Two Taliban suicide bombers attacked Afghan soldiers in Kabul this morning, killing seven people and wounding at least 21 others. AP’s Mir Shah and Rahim Faiez from Kabul with the story here.

What were the three Afghan soldiers who escaped from Cape Cod thinking? The Boston Globe’s Maria Sacchetti interviewed them at a U.S. immigration jail to hear their story: "To send them back to the Afghan army, they say, would be to give them a death sentence. Family members of two soldiers have reported recent death threats."

Interestingly, this wasn’t the first time to the U.S. for two of the soldiers who had been here before to train. "Arash and Aminyar said they could have defected on those earlier trips but did not because they were career soldiers. Now, they say, the situation in Afghanistan has worsened." More here.

Some members of the anti-Islamic State coalition are looking to expand their role. For European countries, there’s a willingness to get more involved in Iraq, but none has showed any interest in joining the U.S. in airstrikes in Syria, where Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has the potential to benefit from the weakening of the Islamic State.

Australia will provide air support to the U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq. But it’s steering clear of a combat role for now. The WSJ’s Robb M. Stewart: "[Prime Minister Tony Abbott] told Parliament an Australian refueling aircraft and a surveillance plane would take part in operations in Iraq from Wednesday-the same day the lower house passed the first batch of new laws aimed at dealing with homegrown terrorist threats." More here.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom carried out its first airstrikes in Iraq yesterday. The WSJ’s Jenny Gross: "The Ministry of Defense said that Royal Air Force jets were tasked to assist Kurdish troops in northwest Iraq that were under attack by Islamic State terrorists." More here.

And Turkey, after months of pressure, is also looking to play a bigger role, although it still fears strengthening Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as well as Kurdish separatists in southeastern Turkey. The NYT’s Celyan Yeginsu: "Parliament will vote this week on a comprehensive motion that would authorize Turkish troops to make incursions into Syria and Iraq, and allow foreign military forces to use Turkish military bases, Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc said after a cabinet meeting on Tuesday.

"… Although Parliament is expected to approve the new mandate, the government is unlikely to authorize troops on the ground without an internationally backed no-fly zone in northern Syria, something that Washington is said to be considering." More here.

Qatar is one of five Arab partner nations contributing support to airstrikes in Syria and its contacts and influence among Islamic extremist groups have proved useful in getting U.S. hostages freed. But its role in the region is far more complicated and problematic than that. Elizabeth Dickinson reports from Abu Dhabi and Doha for FP: "For years, U.S. officials have been willing to shrug off Doha’s proxy network — or even take advantage of it from time to time. Qatar’s neighbors, however, have not. Over the past year, fellow Gulf countries Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain have publicly rebuked Qatar for its support of political Islamists across the region. These countries have threatened to close land borders or suspend Qatar’s membership in the regional Gulf Cooperation Council unless the country backs down. After nearly a year of pressure, the first sign of a Qatari concession came on Sept. 13, when seven senior Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood figures left Doha at the request of the Qatari government.

"Both Qatar and its critics are working to ensure that Washington comes down on their side of the intra-Gulf dispute. At stake is the future political direction of the region — and their roles in guiding it." More here.

Total airstrikes to date by the U.S. and its coalition partners: Nearly 310, with more than 230 of them in Iraq.

ISIL warns of expansion into southern Syria ‘within days.’ The National’s Suha Maayeh and Phil Sands: "The statement was brief and direct. ISIL announced its planned expansion into Deraa, demanded cooperation from rebel groups in southern Syria and threatened anyone daring to stand in its way. ISIL already dominated the north, east and west, the army of president Bashar Al Assad was being broken, and US-led efforts to destroy the group through airstrikes and arming of proxy forces would fail, the statement boasted." More here.

In today’s debate, it gets a lot of attention, but there is scant historical precedent for top leaders in uniform quitting over a policy disagreement, report Military Times’ Andrew Tilghman and Jeff Schogol here.

The U.S. will open its doors to more Syrian refugees. The WaPo’s Anne Gearan: "The Obama administration will greatly increase the number of Syrian refugees approved for permanent resettlement in the United States next year, but has opted against a separate refugee program to serve victims of that intractable civil war, administration officials said Tuesday." More here.

When it comes to destroying the Islamic State in Syria, boots on the ground should be the least of our worries. Aaron David Miller for FP: " Instead, it’s the reality that we’re being pulled inexorably like a moth to a flame not just toward a military conflict with Assad, but toward bearing the responsibility for fixing — or worse, for creating — the new Syria. Indeed, under the realist’s rubric of striking IS to keep America safe, we may well end up in the very place U.S. President Barack Obama has willfully tried to avoid: nation-building."  More here.

For Al-Awsat, Tariq Alhomayed asks whether the American spooks truly underestimated ISIS, here.

Also from the op-ed pages: What does the transformation of Mecca from an ancient, holy city to a modern, "brand new" one mean for Muslims all over the world? Ziauddin Sardar writing for The NYT: "Mecca is a microcosm of the Muslim world. What happens to and in the city has a profound effect on Muslims everywhere. The spiritual heart of Islam is an ultramodern, monolithic enclave, where difference is not tolerated, history has no meaning, and consumerism is paramount. It is hardly surprising then that literalism, and the murderous interpretations of Islam associated with it, have become so dominant in Muslim lands." More here.

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A huge (and somewhat belated) welcome to Gopal Ratnam, most recently a Pentagon reporter for Bloomberg, who began this week as FP’s new White House correspondent. Gopal will also be covering the ways the Obama administration’s national security policies are carried out at the State Department and the Pentagon. Follow him on Twitter at @g_ratnam. 

Who’s where when: Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work brief the press on the Military Health System review release at 1:15 p.m. in the Pentagon Briefing Room… Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Global Security Eric Rosenbach participates in the "A Cyber Strategy for National Security" panel at The Washington Post at 9:00 a.m.

Iran is likely at the top of the agenda for Netanyahu’s White House meeting today. The Times of Israel’s Ron Kampeas: "Obama administration officials and Iran skeptics, chief among them Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are presenting starkly different outlooks of what the world would look like should negotiators meet a Nov. 24 deadline and strike a nuclear deal.

"… A nuclear-free Iran could soon return to the ‘community of nations’ as a constructive partner, U.S. officials say. But those doubtful of Iran’s stated intentions counter that a nuclear deal would free up Iran to intensify its regional mischief and ultimately would not prevent a nuclear weapon." More here.

Israelis rethink life along the Gaza border. The WSJ’s Nicholas Casey, here.

A patient in Texas has been diagnosed with Ebola, marking the first case in the U.S. and the first case outside of Africa. The NYT’s Denise Grady: "A man who took a commercial flight from Liberia that landed in Dallas on Sept. 20 has been found to have the Ebola virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Tuesday." More here.

1,400 troops headed to west Africa: 700 soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division in Fort Campbell, Ky.,  will be deploying to Liberia to assist with the response to the Ebola outbreak. Going with them will be their commander Maj. Gen. Gary Volesky, the former head of Army public affairs, who will lead the joint forces command in Liberia.  Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Adm. John Kirby said yesterday the Army will also deploy an additional 700 soldiers from various engineering units throughout the U.S. "to supervise the construction of ebola treatment units, conduct site surveys, and provide engineering expertise."

The Ebola version of "no boots on the ground": "U.S. military personnel are not and will not be providing direct care to ebola patients," Kirby reiterated to reporters yesterday. The full briefing transcript can be found here.

Four months later, do we know much more about Obama’s $5 billion counterterrorism fund? FP’s Kate Brannen: "With the U.S. Military Academy at West Point as his backdrop, President Barack Obama unveiled a new $5 billion fund to fight terrorism in May. Although the announcement was welcomed at the Pentagon and State Department, there were immediate questions about what exactly the money was for. Four months later, those questions remain largely unanswered.

"…According to multiple sources — both inside the military and on Capitol Hill — the fund’s purpose is murky because it was mostly conceived by National Security Council staff within the White House with little input from budget or policy experts at either the Pentagon or Foggy Bottom."

But the official line from the White House and the Pentagon is: We worked together. "I’m not going to get into the exact details of our interagency deliberations, but it is fair to say that these ideas evolved out of months of coordination from across senior levels of departments and agencies," National Security Council (NSC) spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden told FP. More here.

Writing for FP, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) argues that the U.S.-Indian partnership is at the heart of America’s future in Asia: "I met [Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi] in July, and my impression is that he sees a strategic partnership with the United States as integral to his goal of economically and geopolitically revitalizing India — and that India’s revitalization can, in turn, help reinvigorate our partnership. Modi and I agreed that this goal is much needed, because recently, our partnership has not lived up to its potential.

"… Our strategic relationship has unfortunately devolved into a transactional one. My sense is that wants India to do its part to change this — and that he wants India and the United States to think bigger and do bigger things together once again. I fully agree." More here.

A Christian minister, a law professor, and a 17-year-old high school student are among the figures behind a movement that has captivated the world.  Grace Tsoi and Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian for FP on the recent protests in Hong Kong, here.

After the war … FP’s Justine Drennan reports on three often forgotten and neverending war crime tribunals here.

Countering ISIS through satire and a sitcom. BBC’s Mai Noman: "The series, of which there are 30 episodes, was written by Thaer al-Hasnawi, who lives in Baghdad. He says that IS, which is very active on social media, is winning the information war and that Iraqi people are terrified by the significant territorial gains they have made in Iraq since June. So he decided to use humour to reduce the fear that now grips his country." More here, including a clip of the show’s theme song.

If the Army ever restarts the Ground Combat Vehicle program, it might want to consider some of the homemade designs from the Kurdish peshmerga fighters who are battling ISIS. You can view some of their vehicles here.

The Air Force keeps pilots alive with the iPlane Upgrade. TIME’s Mark Thompson: "Have you downloaded the newest iOS 8 operating system to your iPhone recently? The Air Force is doing the same kind of thing to its F-16 fighters. In fact, its new M6.2+ Operational Flight Program gives those fighter pilots an especially nifty new feature: it keeps them from flying into the ground and killing themselves." Full story, here.