Can ISIS Gain a Foothold in AfPak?

In early October 2014, Shahidullah Shahid, the spokesman for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) announced his group’s support for the Iraq-based Islamic State, also known as ISIS. In a direct address to the hardliner Islamic group, the TTP spokesman said: "Oh our brothers, Muslims across the world have great expectations of you. We are with you, and will provide you with fighters and all possible support."

A day later, TTP Chief Mullah Fazlullah rapidly reacted with a clarification meant for the Afghan Taliban. Fazlullah circulated a written and audio message denying the speculations about his group’s possible allegiance to ISIS, and renewing TTP’s loyalty to Afghan Taliban Chief Mullah Mohammad Omar. "We are under oath to Mullah Mohammad Omar and I invite mujahedeen (holy warriors) across the world to continue jihad (holy war) against the infidels under the leadership of Mullah Omar," it said.

In contrast to Shahid’s Oct. 5 statement, in which he pledged to send fighters to Iraq to fight alongside ISIS, Fazlullah said his group’s jihad is presently focused on the "infidel system" in Pakistan and, "if Mullah Omar orders us, we are ready to send our fighters not only in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, but any part of the world."

As the dust from the two successive statements was about to settle down, Shahid came out on Oct. 14 with a fresh announcement saying that he and five other TTP commanders — from Peshawar, Hangu, Kurram, Orakzai, and Khyber — declare allegiance to ISIS, delivering to TTP the last, and even fatal, blow in a series stretching back over one year.

The Pakistan Taliban is rife with infighting, leadership disputes, and fragmentation that began when its chief, Hakimullah Mehsud, was killed in a November 2013 U.S. drone strike. Since then TTP Sajna and TTP Shehryar Mehsud factions clashed over the appointment of Fazlullah, a non-tribal from Swat, Pakistan’s tourist resort province, as the new chief; TTP Punjab chief Asmatullah Muavia renouncing terrorism; and Fazlullah’s key aid Omar Khalid Korasani creating his own group, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, in August 2014. On June 15, 2014 Pakistan conducted military operations in North Waziristan that destroyed vital TTP infrastructure and drove members into refuges in the mountains. Shahid’s realignment with ISIS also weakened the authority of Fazlullah.

While this new division further exposed the weaknesses and rifts in the once dreaded TTP, it has also opened Pandora’s Box in an area renown for sheltering militants and terrorist groups.

Several Pakistani newspapers wrote editorials depicting a grim future while columnist and commentators assured of ISIS’s entry into the region because pro-ISIS pamphlets were circulated in Peshawar in Sept. 2013.

Amid fears of youth joining ISIS, the Pakistan Ulema Council, an independent body of religious scholars from all over country, condemned ISIS on Oct. 18 and urged youth "in Islamic countries to not cooperate with any violent group whose teachings or actions are against the teachings of Islam."

Can ISIS gain foothold in AfPak region?

Authorless pamphlets aside, it seems unlikely that ISIS could even gain a foothold in Pakistan. Being the sanctuary of over a dozen local and international militant and terrorist groups, the formation of a widely reported and highly recruited group like ISIS cannot be ruled out. However, the realities on the ground, local and regional dynamics, and Pakistan’s contempt for violence thanks to  the past decade of violence is likely to overrule the spread of ISIS into Pakistan.

The first and foremost major challenge is the Afghan Taliban. ISIS making gains in Pakistan or Afghanistan not only carries the risk of losing material resources, including foreign funding, for the Afghan Taliban, but also affects the number of fresh recruits. The majority of the nearly dozen militant groups operating in Pakistan’s tribal areas, including al Qaeda, owe allegiance to Mullah Omar. However, since ISIS’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had proclaimed himself the Caliph of the entire Muslim world, any fledgling ISIS-affiliate in Pakistan will find themselves in direct conflict with the loyalties of the Afghan Taliban. The Taliban, thus, will never allow any such group to take root and vie for their resources.

The past decade of violence that saw large numbers of civilians killed by Taliban suicide bombers, has driven away the vast majority of people from violent and extremist ideologies. Since ISIS is known for its violent campaigns in Iraq and Syria, frequently targeting non-Sunni Muslims and non-Muslims, there is less of a chance that the defected TTP leaders will draw support.

Also, TTP suffers from internal differences, fragmentation, the destruction of its Waziristan-based infrastructure, and a weakened Fazlullah thanks to the defection of six leaders.

Experts on the region believe this can go either way. Pakistan’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Rustam Shah Mohmand, does not believe that there is a prospect for ISIS in the region despite ISIS having "huge financial resources at their hands" permitting the group to help supporters within the AfPak region.

Defense analyst Brig. (ret.) Saad Muhammad Khan, however, is of the view that since a "nucleus is existing in the (AfPak) region (for militancy), ISIS can extend its network to in case it achieves victory in Iraq and Syria," according to comments he made to me earlier this month.

The operational ramifications of the six Pakistani Taliban leaders declaring allegiance to ISIS is still unknown, but the new split is going to prove a fatal blow to TTP and is the first-ever clear and visible challenge to the authority and influence of Mullah Omar.  Not only will the new ISIS followers, if they manage to survive, divide the financial and human resources of TTP and the Afghan Taliban, they will also encourage other militant leaders and outfits to declare independent groups with their own strategy and policy, challenging the power of Mullah Omar, leader of the most powerful group in the region.

Daud Khattak is a Pakistani journalist currently working as a senior editor of Radio Mashaal for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in Prague. He has worked with Pakistan’s English dailies The News and Daily Times, Afghanistan’s Pajhwok Afghan News, and has written for the Christian Science Monitor and London Sunday Times.

The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not represent those of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.