U.S. Investigating Report of Islamic State Chlorine Attack

U.S. security officials said on Thursday they were investigating a report that Islamic State militants used chlorine gas in an attack against Iraq police officers near Balad, north of Baghdad, in September. If the report is confirmed, it would seemingly be the first known use of a chemical weapon by Islamic State fighters, though two other crude chorine attacks have been reported by Iraqi forces. Meanwhile, the U.S. military’s Central Command said it would be a "months-long" endeavor for Iraqi forces to get to a position in which they would be able to "go on a sustained counter-offensive" against Islamic State militants. The timeline is contingent upon the training and arming of forces as well as external factors including weather and Iraqi politics. U.S. military officials noted any similar effort in Syria would take more time.

Syria

Lebanon has announced it will stop accepting refugees from the Syrian conflict, except for in "exceptional" cases. There are 1.1 million Syrian refugees officially registered in Lebanon, about a quarter of Lebanon’s population, though the actual number is believed to be far higher. Lebanese Information Minister Ramzi Jreij said the country could not handle any more refugees. He added that the Lebanese government will encourage the refugees "to return to their countries, or go to other countries, by all means." The U.N. refugee agency’s representative in Lebanon said the government has been restricting the entry of Syrians since August.  Meanwhile, Syrian opposition forces reported they have taken control of the government’s Umm al-Mayathen checkpoint in Daraa province, in a bid toward seizing the Nasib border crossing with Jordan. If rebel fighters succeed in overtaking the crossing, it would give opposition forces control over the border between Syria and Jordan. However, rebel fighters have encountered heavy shelling from Syrian government forces.

Headlines  

• Libyan Foreign Minister Mohamed Dayri said he hoped for a negotiated solution and power sharing agreement with a rival government that has pushed the recognized government out of the capital of Tripoli.
• Israelis and Palestinians staged protests Thursday as tensions escalate following an attack by a Palestinian man on a Jerusalem light-rail station.  
• Iranian and Pakistani forces have exchanged cross-border fire, as increased tensions prompted the two states to hold a meeting in Tehran on increasing intelligence cooperation.

Arguments and Analysis

‘U.S.-Arab Counterterrorism Cooperation in a Region Ripe for Extremism‘ (Michele Dunne, Frederic Wehrey, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

"Just as important is that the United States and some of its main Arab allies differ significantly in their definitions of terrorism and how to combat it. Nowhere is this more evident than in the attempt by Egypt and Gulf Arab states to portray mainstream Islamist political movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorists, a definition that the United States does not accept. These countries have adopted, or are now considering, harsh new laws that not only criminalize free expression, free association, and peaceful protest but in some cases actually define such activities as terrorism. Such measures are aimed not only at Islamists but also at many other critics including secularists and members of religious sects.

The resulting political repression and human rights abuses on a massive scale in Egypt, and on a smaller scale in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), are antithetical to American values and threaten to push more recruits into the jihadists’ ranks while alienating wide swaths of the population. Such an approach is likely to increase the problem of terrorism in Arab countries rather than reduce it, and perceived U.S. support for repression will increase public antipathy to the United States." 

‘Tunisia’s Elections Amid a Middle East Cold War‘ (Youssef Cherif, Atlantic Council)

"With the Tunisian elections mere days away, political parties face a skeptical population fed-up with politics after a turbulent three years since the revolution that ousted Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Short of resources for their electoral campaigns, parties search for their appropriate patrons as the country tries to fend off a deepening economic crisis. As such, the main political parties have reached out to external players for support, targeting the wealthiest regional actors: the oil rich monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that have been engaged in a Middle East cold war since the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have disagreed over fundamental aspects of the Arab Spring uprisings-not the least of which includes whether or not to support the emerging Islamist power centers. Extending their low-intensity cold war into Tunisia, they have used the two strongest parties as proxies: Ennahda and Nidaa Tounes. These alliances are likely to influence the elections, exacerbating Tunisia’s inter-party polarization at a time when consensus is direly needed."

‘Toward a Lasting Ceasefire in Gaza‘ (International Crisis Group)

"With Gaza and Israel having fought their third war in six years, a more lasting respite would be welcome. Of course avoiding another eventual war requires a longer-term strategy that helps establish a Palestinian state. But with two-state negotiations in hiatus, the best the parties can hope for today is a more stable, durable ceasefire. This will depend not only on ensuring that the reconciliation agreement is implemented, but also on a significant change in Israeli policy toward Gaza. There are nascent indications of a belated realisation among policymakers that constricting the territory has compromised Israel’s security and helped bring about the war. The extent of these indications will be crystallised in indirect ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, scheduled for late October. Another set of upcoming negotiations, between Hamas and the PLO, will be no less important, as Gaza cannot hope for real change if the PA’s technocratic government of national consensus does not take up its responsibilities – at least regarding Gaza’s borders and the payment of its government employees."

— Mary Casey