FP’s Situation Report: Republicans win control of Congress; New reports detail Islamic State and Russian atrocities; What does the GOP victory mean for the Pentagon and the economy?; and much more.

By David Francis with Sabine Muscat

The Republican Party has won control of Congress. From FP’s News Team: "On Tuesday, Republicans took control of the Senate by picking up at least six seats, according to a CNN projection. President Barack Obama can expect a bevy of opposition to both his domestic and international agendas. Here at home, the already-slim chances of comprehensive immigration reform, the extension of unemployment benefits, and tax code reforms will fall to zero as Republicans focus on using their investigative powers to badger the White House and join their colleagues in the House in trying to repeal all or part of Obamacare.

"When it comes to foreign policy, [the] GOP win could make it easier for Obama to push through stalled trade deals and, if the president decided to shift his strategy against the Islamic State, win Congressional backing for sending ground troops to Iraq or Syria. At the same time, an emboldened Republican-controlled Senate would seek to complicate or derail a potential nuclear deal with Iran — Obama’s top foreign policy priority — and make it much harder for the administration to pressure the Israeli government to halt settlement construction and consider the kinds of concessions needed to restart the stalled Middle East peace process." More here, and full election results here.

These foreign policy issues are pressing right now, and past stalemates over domestic issues like immigration reform and Obamacare show that it’s difficult for the White House and Republicans in Congress to forge working relationships. But today, there are two reminders that a strong U.S. presence in world affairs is needed at this moment. In both Ukraine and the Middle East, new reports indicate violence on a horrific scale.

More on the election below.

After Ukraine and Russia signed a gas deal that would keep Europe supplied through the winter, many in Europe hoped a period of détente would follow. But the thaw in relations has ended. After rogue votes in Eastern Ukraine this weekend, encouraged by Russia but denounced by Ukraine, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has sent troops to key cities in the east, increasing chances for confrontation with pro-Russian separatists or Russian troops crossing into Ukraine. All of this comes as details emerge of a massacre of Ukrainian forces by Russian troops.

From "The Battle of Ilovaisk: Details of a Massacre Inside Rebel-Held Eastern Ukraine," by Newsweek’s Lucian Kim:  In August "Petro Poroshenko …stood proudly on the podium in Kiev’s Independence Square as 1,500 goose-stepping servicemen, armored vehicles and rocket launchers passed before him…Little did Poroshenko know that 400 miles to the east a catastrophe was unfolding that would become a turning point in the war. The columns of armor Poroshenko said would be sent directly from Independence Square to the front line would hardly be enough to stop a stealth invasion by regular Russian troops." More here.

The piece details how completely unmatched Ukrainian forces are by better-trained and better-equipped Russian troops. It also hints at how quickly Russian troops could mobilize against western Ukraine. Republicans have been calling for more aid to Ukraine and a bolder NATO to counter the Russian threat.

More on Ukraine below.

Republicans made political gains by criticizing Obama’s response to the quick rise of the Islamic State, hammering their opponents for backing the president’s Syria strategy. However, criticizing is different than offering an alternative strategy, and it will be interesting to see how a splintered GOP would confront the group. A new report from Human Rights Watch on the torture of young boys in Kobani shows that more needs to be done.

From the Associated Press: "Islamic State militants tortured and abused Kurdish children captured earlier this year near the northern Syrian town of Kobani, beating them with hoses and electric cables, an international rights group said Tuesday. Human Rights Watch based its conclusions on interviews with several children who were among more than 150 Kurdish boys from Kobani abducted in late May as they were returning home after taking school exams in the city of Aleppo. It said around 50 of the Kurds escaped early in their captivity, while the rest were released in batches — the last coming on Oct. 29." More here.

The torture of Kurdish boys is a reminder that the Islamic State is not only targeting Syrian rebels. Minority groups in Iraq and Syria are also at risk. This includes thousands of Yazidis. Writing for FP, Alice Su says many are still trapped on Mt. Sinjar: "They became a brief cause célèbre in America, galvanizing a U.S.-led air campaign that helped most of the Yazidis evacuate through Syria to Iraq’s Kurdistan region. But while international attention has flitted away, several thousand civilians are still stranded on the mountain." More here.

More on the Islamic State below.

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Situation Report.

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Who’s Where When Today

Time TBD Secretary of State John Kerry meets French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius in Paris. 2:30 p.m. Sharon Jones, director of the Defense Information Systems Agency Small Business Office, participates in a panel discussion on "Developing a Sustainable Cyber Workforce for Small Business and State/Local Government," at the Sheraton Columbia Town Center, Columbia, Md. 4:30 p.m. Retired General Stanley McChrystal, former Commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, speaks at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

What’s Moving Markets

Wall Street is already responding positively to the GOP’s victory, pushing the U.S. dollar to a seven-year high against the yen and raising U.S. equity futures. For traders, "the likelihood that [the GOP] will curb the legislative agenda was seen as positive. Similar situations in the past have often sparked U.S. stock market rallies." More from Bloomberg here.

Writing for FP, Daniel Atlman on how a Republican Congress can strengthen the global economy. "There are three important areas where Republicans can set an agenda that might even bring Obama along, offering him a chance to strengthen his as-yet-shaky legacy, and give Congress something to crow about." More here.

The European Union has cut growth forecasts. From the Associated Press: "The official forecast for growth this year in the 18-country eurozone was cut to 0.8 percent from a prediction of 1.2 percent made in the spring. Indicating little good was expected next year too, it reduced the 2015 prediction from 1.7 percent to 1.1 percent." More here.

Secretary of State John Kerry laid out his blueprint for upcoming talks with China. Read the Tuesday speech here.

Elections

The election was a referendum on President Obama. From the New York Times’ Jonathan Weisman and Ashley Parker: "Those contests were measures of how difficult the terrain was for Democrats in an election where Republicans put together their strategy as a referendum on the competence of government, embodied by Mr. Obama." More here.

But exit polls showed voters dissatisfied with Republicans as well. From the Wall Street Journal’s Laura Meckler: "The gender gap that has been a longstanding feature of American politics surfaced again on Tuesday, preliminary exit polls showed. This year, it benefited the GOP more than Democrats." More here.

How the Senate was won. From the Washington Post’s Philip Rucker and Robert Costa: "While Republicans were moving to address their problems, Democrats were trying to overcome problems of their own — including difficulties with a White House suspicious of their leadership and protective of the president’s reputation, his political network and his biggest donors." More here.

What’s next for Democrats? Yahoo! News‘ Oliver Knox: "In a series of interviews over the past week, Obama aides, outside advisers, and congressional officials of both parties sketched out how the next two years could look as the president tries to shore up his legacy, hunts for a defining second-term achievement, and ponders ways to help the Democrat looking to succeed him at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue." Details here.

From Defense One‘s Molly O’Toole, on how the elections might not change much on the national security front. More here.  

Some foreign perspective on the GOP victory: The Irish Times’ Simon Carswell thinks Obama will need to step up his game to explain his party’s "drubbing" in the midterms. More here.

Ukraine

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko has ordered army reinforcements to key southern and eastern cities to counter a potential separatists offensive. From the BBC’s David Stern: "Fragile and wobbly as it may be, the ceasefire between Ukrainian government troops and Russian-backed militants has not completely broken down. And that’s the most important thing at the moment." More here.

Pro-Russian leaders are sworn in despite protests from Kiev. From Al Jazeera: "The inauguration ceremonies in eastern Ukraine took place even as tens of thousands of people marched in Moscow for ‘Unity Day,’ a nationalist holiday that celebrates a 17th-century battle and was revived under President Vladimir Putin to replace the Soviet-era celebration of the Bolshevik revolution. Ukraine featured heavily in speeches for that occasion." More here.

From Star and Stripes’ Michael S. Darnell: Army chief says no plans for new troop reductions in Europe. More here.

Islamic State

Writing for FP, Sharon Morris on failures to stop young people from joining extremists groups. "Too often, programs designed to steer young people away from violence don’t fully come to terms with what many militant groups seem to offer: the chance to overturn systems that are holding them back, and to explore what life has to offer beyond what an oppressive state or entrenched elites tell them they can have." More here.

From Ben Hubbard in the New York Times: As Qaeda-backed group makes gains, rift grows among rebels in Syria. "Two groups that the Nusra Front has seized bases from in recent days, the Syrian Revolutionaries Front and the Hazm Movement, are considered moderates and have received limited arms support from the West. Despite that, they have been unable to hold their ground against the extremists in this latest outbreak of rebel infighting, commanders say." More here.

From Al Jazeera: Evidence of the failure of U.S. airstrikes to stop the Islamic State’s advance across northern Iraq. "The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has continued to gain ground in northern Iraq despite weeks of U.S.-led air strikes, and is now moving closer to the Iraq-Kurdish city of Erbil. ISIL fighters are battling Kurdish volunteer troops in the town of al-Kuwayr, about 60km southwest of Erbil." More here.

Also from Al Jazeera: "France has urged the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to escalate its involvement in Syria by rallying to the defense of allied rebel forces in Aleppo while the gains of Syria’s Al-Qaeda affiliate are also raising pressure on Washington to expand its involvement in an increasingly complex Syrian conflict." More here.

Afghanistan

From Tim Craig in the Washington Post: "U.S. Army’s 10th Mountain Division formally concluded its operations in Afghanistan on Tuesday, another sign that the war is drawing to a close even as American commanders are evaluating whether they will have enough resources to support the fledgling Afghan military." More here.

Form The Wall Street Journal’s Joel Schectman And Dion Nissenbaum: the Pentagon sought sanctions exemptions for Iranian investment in Afghanistan. "Though the engagement with Iran ultimately faltered, the efforts demonstrated the lengths to which the American military was willing to go to promote business investment in Afghanistan to replace billions of dollars the U.S. and its allies have spent during 13 years of war." More here.

From the Associated Press: "A Russian member of the Taliban made his first appearance in a federal court in Virginia on Tuesday, marking the first time a military detainee from Afghanistan has been brought to the U.S. for trial." More here.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Sam Dagher on Kurdistan’s need for money from the West to sustain its economy. More here.

Israel

FP’s Elias Groll on an Amnesty International report on Israel’s action in the Gaza Strip this summer: "Israel’s military campaign there to halt rocket strikes on its own territory repeatedly flouted international law by ignoring the possibility of civilian casualties caused by its air strikes. According to the report, some of the incidents may amount to war crimes." More here.

From Haaretz: "Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Tuesday warned Israel that it would have to close its airport and seaports in the event of a third Lebanon war, saying its rockets could strike every part of the country." More here.

Iran

From the Los Angeles Times’ Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: "The Obama administration has agreed to allow Iran to operate 6,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium, up from a ceiling of 4,000 reported two weeks ago, as part of negotiations for a nuclear deal, according to a website approved by the Iranian government." More here.  

Ebola

FP’s Laurie Garrett, on how some religious leaders are helping, not hindering, the country’s response to Ebola. "Some popular Christian pastors, especially charismatics and Pentecostals, have shunned the condemning of homosexuals and divisive declarations that the immoralities of the few are responsible for the Ebola deaths of the many. Some have focused on messages of prevention, using the pulpit to teach virology 101." More here.

Asia Pacific

As President Obama prepares for his trip to China, the CNA Corporation has a new paper suggesting policies "aimed toward generating a more peaceful, stable, nonconfrontational, law abiding environment in the South China Sea." More here.

Africa

The New York Times’ Isma’il Kushkush and Jeffrey Gettleman, on defections from al Shabaab. "Even before its leader was cut down in an American airstrike in September, the Shabab militant group in Somalia, once one of Al Qaeda’s most powerful franchises, began unraveling. In the past few months, the group has been shedding territory — and fighters." More here.

Space Tourism

Writing for FP, Konstantin Kakaes argues that recent accidents in the private space tourism industry should not deter future investment. "Both are examples of what sociologist Charles Perrow famously dubbed ‘normal accidents’: catastrophes that should properly be blamed not on the proximate cause — a loose lever or jammed valve, say — but on the inherent complexity of technologically intricate systems." More here.

Revolving Door

Italian politician Federica Mogherini has begun serving as the high representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs. She made her first public appearance yesterday.

From the Washington Business Journal’s Jill R. Aitoro: "Leidos Holdings Inc. named Michael Leiter, former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, its chief of business development and strategy." More here.

And finally, the Daily Beast’s Josh Rogin on Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski, whose recent comments on Obama’s strategy to defeat the Islamic State indicate the Team USA coach is likely very happy about yesterday’s election results. More here.