Islamic State’s ‘Shock and Awe’ Campaign Fuels Global Jihad, U.N. Says

Even if the U.S.-led military coalition defeats the Islamic State on the battlefield, the extremist Islamist movement possesses the military, financial, and ideological might to persevere for years, breathing new life into a global jihadist movement that was on the ebb and potentially displacing al Qaeda as the world’s most feared terrorist organization, according to a draft U.N. assessment obtained by Foreign Policy.

In the span of a year, the Islamic State (also known as ISIL), as well as its rival al Qaeda-offshoot, the Nusra Front, have altered the religious demographics of the Middle East, targeting Shiite Muslim communities and other minorities in Syria and Iraq and exacerbating sectarian tensions throughout the region.

But in contrast to al Qaeda, the Islamic State has been able to reach, and inspire, a far broader audience through the sophisticated use of social media, crowdsourcing, and the constant bombardment of propaganda in multiple languages. For instance, one speech by the group’s spokesman, Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, was translated into seven languages.

"The impact of the ISIL phenomenon will be long-term and likely substantial, even in the event of ISIL’s progress being rapidly and comprehensively reversed in late 2014," according to the 32-page report, which was written for the U.N. Security Council by an eight-member team of independent experts. "If ISIL is pushed back inside Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic, it is likely to seek fresh avenues to advance its goals through organizing terrorist attacks elsewhere."

The terrorist army, which has seized control of large portions of Iraq and Syria, "has pursued a strategy of ‘shock and awe’ to create fear, attract supporters, and establish its primacy within the overall Al-Qaida movement. If successful, the ISIL brand may even supplant that of Al-Qaida, reinvigorating a movement that has seen its core weakened."

So far, the Islamic State has recruited more than 15,000 adherents and fighters from 80 countries to join its fighting ranks. It has also established tactical alliances with Sunni tribal militias and former military officers who once served in Saddam Hussein’s army, according to the assessment. It also counts among its fighters a substantial number of former prisoners who escaped during mass jailbreaks in Syria and Iraq.

The popularity of the group among a "small but scattered cross-section of international youth" — ISIL logos have already begun appearing in "a viral wave of selfies" around the world — has fueled concern about the possibility of "so-called ‘lone-wolf’ attacks in which self-radicalized individuals launch difficult to anticipate terrorist attacks."

"ISIL’s temporary progress has already excited a wave of emulation by other groups, including networks outside the Middle East," the panel noted. "A series of declarations of allegiance to ISIL from groups in locations as varied as North Africa, South and South-East Asia point to the widespread influence of ISIL."

Meanwhile, al Qaeda’s Nusra Front, which operates out of Syria, still holds sway in many parts of that civil war-torn country. The movement, for instance, allegedly has "a weapons factory, known as the ‘BASS Foundation for Military Manufacturing and Development company,’" underscoring the movement’s "growing capabilities and expertise." It also possesses man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) capable of striking a target at an altitude of 3,500 meters, as well as tanks, planes, and rocket launchers.

The report constitutes the U.N.’s most detailed assessment of the Islamic State’s command structure, military capabilities, and varied funding sources. It portrays an organization flush with millions in daily revenues from black-market oil sales, kidnappings, extortion, and the sale of wheat. The movement possesses enough light arms to keep shooting for up to two years without resupplies. In June, an Islamic State offensive in Anbar, Diyala, and Salahaddin provinces and the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk captured enough vehicles, weapons, and ammunition to "arm and equip more than three Iraqi conventional army divisions."

The group has a deep bench of experienced fighters who could become a "transnational cadre and mobile pool of expert terrorists who can combine terrorist, guerrilla, and conventional tactics when planning attacks."

The panel conceded that it has "no reliable or confirmed estimates of the amount of conventional arms under ISIL’s control." However, the extremist group can count on veteran former Iraqi army officers and soldiers "with experience in conventional warfare who are well versed on a range of weapons systems, including the use of tanks and artillery…. ISIL also appears comfortable with older Russian heavy military equipment seized in Syria."

The caliphate the group claims to have established is mostly funded by illegal oil exports — more than 47,000 barrels a day of crude from fields in Syria and Iraq.

Experts estimate that the group takes in between $846,000 and $1.6 million daily, with its oil fetching a price of $18 to $34 per barrel. Those figures don’t account for production costs, which are unknown, or fuel used to fund the group’s military operations. One U.N. member state told the panel that the Islamic State controls a reserve of between 2.5 million and 3 million barrels of oil contained in pipelines. The group also maintains control over hundreds of thousands of pounds of harvested wheat.

The group also earned approximately $35 million to $45 million in one year from ransom payments, or as much as $123,000 a day; in addition, it received several million dollars in foreign donations. It illicitly sells Syrian and Iraqi antiquities, stolen construction-equipment generators, and electric cables. In addition, it collects taxes from businesses in areas under its control. "ISIL promotes a propaganda of virtue but practices vice," the report states.

ISIL’s "burn rate" — how much it spends — is unclear. But some member states alerted the panel that the group pays unskilled fighters as little as $62 a month and experienced warriors up to $1,875. Spouses and kids get $25 to $50 a month.

The report cites other long-term concerns, including the prospect that the group will unleash weapons of mass destruction.

"ISIL is judged to have no capacity in the short- to medium-term to manufacture weapons of mass destruction…. The risk of ISIL acquiring or producing a nuclear device is extremely low.

"Although unlikely in the short term, should ISIL and [Nusra] come under existential pressure in Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic, the temptation to use non-conventional or high impact weapons will grow," the report stated. "There could also be a degree of biological risk given ISIL now controls areas that contain a variety of facilities, including those at the University of Mosul."

The panel made 10 recommendations to the Security Council, including banning flights in territory controlled by ISIL or al-Nusra Front, seizing oil tankers transporting oil from their territory, and imposing an international moratorium on trading looted Syrian and Iraqi antiquities. It also calls on U.N. countries to impede the Islamic State’s money transfers through the international banking system and to block the flow of foreign fighters into Syria and Iraq. "Effectively implemented Security Council sanctions can play a meaningful role in disrupting ISIL and ANF," the report states. "Sanctions alone are insufficient to fully respond to the threat."