Hagel’s Departure Isn’t a Repeat of Rumsfeld’s

I have already pointed out how President Barack Obama’s decision to replace Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel differs from the superficially similar decision by President George W. Bush to replace Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in 2006: Bush coupled the personnel shift with a thoroughgoing self-assessment and a resulting strategic shift. Bush’s move was not just a change in personalities but a change in direction. (Bush also made other crucial personnel changes, most notably selecting General David Petraeus to lead the Iraq war effort, whereas the Obama administration has gone to some lengths to emphasize that there will be no other personnel changes on the national security team.)

Yet Obama’s current personnel shuffle is different in another way that could prove almost as consequential: evidently President Obama fired Hagel without having a replacement lined up. When President Bush announced Rumsfeld’s departure, he announced the nomination of Bob Gates at the same time. Obama has not yet named the replacement, and two of the most obvious front-runners, former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michèle Flournoy and Sen. Jack Reed, have already pulled their names out of contention. The failure to nominate someone is not necessarily proof that the talent pool is shallow, but it is proof that the removal of Hagel was poorly planned and not well coordinated.

Although Bush named Gates as Rumsfeld’s successor concurrent with Rumsfeld’s resignation, and although the Senate was eager to confirm Gates and did so with alacrity, in fact Gates did not take office for a month and a half because he wanted to finish the academic semester at Texas A&M. I remember thinking at the time that the interregnum was too long. We were in the midst of a crucial strategy review, exactly the wrong time to have a lame duck heading the Department of Defense. Secretary Gates, in his memoirs, indicates he now also thinks he erred in not taking office sooner.

The current post-Hagel interregnum could well last much longer than 6 weeks, stretching into months during which the civilian leadership of the Defense Department will be even weaker than it has been — and remember that in firing Hagel, Obama has in effect said that the civilian leadership of the Pentagon has been inadequate up until now. So the administration is being forced for the foreseeable future to settle for something that they deem less than inadequate.

Like all administrations, the Obama administration is quick to point out when gridlock and dysfunction can be blamed on other branches of government. And if the Senate is slow to confirm Obama’s eventual nominee for secretary of defense, then the blame can be shared. But if Obama delays much longer in nominating Hagel’s replacement, the lion’s share of the blame has to rest with the White House.

I hope I am wrong in interpreting the current awkwardness as a sign that Obama fired Hagel without having answered the "and then what?" question. I hope I can quickly post a follow-on item praising the president’s nominee. And, indeed, it is not too late for President Obama to nominate a strong secretary of defense. But it is getting later by the day.