The coming fall of the house of ISIS

By Jim Sisco

Best Defense guest columnist

The chinks in ISIS’s armor are already starting to appear and it is only a matter of time before ISIS is defeated.

ISIS’s initial popularity and ability to defeat its adversaries and acquire territory are attributed to several factors. The most important of which was a lack of governance in the region and the Syrian and Iraqi governments’ inability to deliver basic services. When ISIS initially took over territories in Syria and Iraq they delivered basic services, governance, and justice—although extreme—to many ungoverned regions. ISIS was able to immediately fill a void created by the ongoing civil war in Syria and a Shiite dominated Iraq Government that neglected the Sunni tribes. ISIS was able to play upon the population’s sympathies and desires and win the “hearts and minds” of the populations in territories they concurred.

Unlike al-Qaeda, whose philosophy is to create a global movement without acquiring vast territories, ISIS’s philosophy is to create an Islamic Caliphate. In order to achieve its objective, ISIS will need to maintain captured territory within existing states, provide basic goods and services and administer governance and justice to the populations in these controlled areas. ISIS lacks the capacity and ability to do so and is increasingly relying on fear and violence to maintain control of the areas they currently occupy. As opposition to ISIS increases, so does the level of brutality that ISIS imposes on the population, which will eventually be the cause of its demise. We are already seeing parts of the controlled areas push back in Syria and Iraq.

The Egyptian born leader of the ISIS’s police force known as the deputy “emir” of the al-Hesbah force in Syria was recently found beheaded with a cigarette in his mouth. It is not know who committed the act, but residents stated the commander of the group was responsible for numerous beheadings and banned smoking in public. In Iraq, ISIS prohibited Sunnis from participating in the annual celebration of the birth of the prophet Muhammad. Examples of ISIS’s increasing violence against Sunnis in Iraq include the execution of 15 men of the al-Jumaila tribe and a public execution of men, women and children of the Albu Nimr tribe. The executions in Iraq were in response to the burning of ISIS flags and Sunni opposition to ISIS oppression. As ISIS increases its brutality, opposition will grow and eventually lead to its demise.

With this understanding, the U.S. and coalition partners should design a population-centric strategy and implement a strategic communications plan that counters ISIS activities and propaganda. By delivering basic goods and services to the populations and communicating more effectively to those directly or indirectly controlled by ISIS, the U.S. and countries opposing ISIS’s advance can accelerate the shrinking of ISIS’s influence and ultimately the demise of ISIS.

Jim Sisco is a former recon Marine and naval intelligence officer and is currently the president of ENODO Global, a business intelligence firm that focuses on population-centric analysis to solve complex social problems in dynamic cultural environments.

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