More Setbacks for U.S.-Supported Rebels

Though U.S. officials said yesterday that they were expanding air support to protect Syrian rebels trained by the United States, activists in Syria report this morning that five more members of U.S.-supported rebel group Division 30 were captured last night by Jabhat al-Nusra. The attack on the Division 30 fighters came in the town of Qah, near the Syria-Turkey border. U.S. officials also told Reuters yesterday that the first U.S.-trained Syrian rebel to die in combat is believed to have been killed in fighting last Friday.

The setbacks for the U.S.-trained rebel force come as the United States continues discussions with Turkey about a proposed “safe zone.” Turkish officials are pushing to exclude Kurdish rebels from operating in the proposed safe zone. U.S. officials have countered by saying they will not rely on Kurdish rebels, but that they will work with them in the safe zone if necessary. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded to the recent U.S. escalation in Syria at a press conference in Qatar, calling it “counterproductive.”

Anti-Houthi Fighters Capture Air Base with Support from Foreign Troops

An Emirati brigade, equipped with tanks and other armored vehicles, has landed in Aden, Yemen, to support anti-Houthi forces. The new troops are in addition to Emirati and Saudi special forces that were already operating in southern Yemen. With the support of these new troops, anti-Houthi fighters have seized al-Anad air base, a strategic military facility 30 miles north of Aden.

Headlines

• Libya’s state prosecutor is investigating a video that shows Saadi Gaddafi, one of Muammar Gaddafi’s sons, being beaten by his captors.

• Though Gulf governments said they were cautiously supportive of the Iran nuclear deal, Secretary of State John Kerry said the United States would “expedite certain arms sales” at a meeting with Gulf Cooperation Council officials in Qatar yesterday.

• A new report claims that at least 459 civilians have died in coalition airstrikes targeting the Islamic State over the past year, including 100 children; the U.S. government has only acknowledged two civilian deaths in its bombing campaign to date.

• The British government has authorized a one-year extension of its participation in the air campaign in Syria, prolonging the use of Tornado fighter jets that were due to be retired.

• The deaths of 19 migrants off the coast of Sicily last week has brought the total number of migrants who have died trying to transit the Mediterranean from North Africa to more that 2,000 people this year.

Arguments and Analysis

“Palestine on Deck” (Grant Rumley, Foreign Affairs)

“Palestine’s political parties both see the nuclear agreement as a precursor to freeing up sanctions relief for Iran while providing the diplomatic bandwidth for Western ambassadors to reengage the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Fatah and Hamas have vastly different ideas about where those newly liberated resources should be applied, though. And Hamas itself is divided. While members of the Politburo recently visited Saudi Arabia in the hopes of rehabilitating ties with the Kingdom, Hamas’s military wing — the Qassam Brigades — has reportedly sent emissaries to court Iran. While the Politburo officials may make the headline statements, the Qassam Brigades consistently court Iran for financial assistance the Politburo won’t provide. As one Israeli official noted, ‘When there’s no alternative at home, they turn to the Iranians.’”

“The danger of (mis)perceptions after the Iran deal” (Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar, The Monkey Cage)

“Perceptions of the recent nuclear deal within Iran sharply differ from those of other players, particularly the United States, Israel and the Persian Gulf Arab states. This wide cognitive gap in what the deal entails could undermine both the agreement and regional security in the coming months. Misperceptions, as Columbia University’s Robert Jervis taught us four decades ago, can unintentionally push states into war.

Much of the ongoing nuclear debate outside of Iran is based on the conclusion that Tehran is the big winner of the agreement. From Washington to Tel Aviv to Riyadh, critics call the agreement the worst in the history of U.S. diplomacy, the deal of the century for Iran and as disastrous for the world as the crucifixion of Jesus. They contend that Tehran has ‘bamboozled’ Washington and claim that the sanctions relief will only embolden Iran and fund its activities in the region and beyond. By contrast, an existential fear of the post-deal environment has penetrated the powerful conservative circles in Iran. They see the agreement as a prelude to containment, regional confrontation and regime change from within. The deal may bring about an economic boom, but it may also come with a security bust.”

-J. Dana Stuster

GEORGE OURFALIAN/AFP/Getty Images