Situation Report: U.S. officials say the Islamic State likely used chemical weapons; Leaks aplenty at State; Buyers remorse in Turkey; and more.

By David Francis and Adam Rawnsley

A mustard agent in Iraq? According to U.S. officials, the Islamic State likely used the chemical weapon against Kurdish forces in Iraq this week, the Wall Street Journal’s Adam Entous reports. It’s the first indication that the group got its hands on banned chemicals.

These officials said that the terror group could have obtained the weapons in Syria, a country that admitted to having stockpiles of the agent when President Bashar al-Assad agreed to give them up in 2013.

It fits the timeline. Chemical weapons inspectors have said they weren’t able to prove Assad’s claims that he destroyed hundreds of tons of mustard agent. U.S. intelligence agencies now believe the Syrian strongman may have stashed the chemical in areas now under Islamic State control.

Plug that leak? Not so much. The White House is currently negotiating the Trans Pacific Partnership, a massive trade deal with Asian nations, which the Obama administration insists is necessary for the U.S. economy to stay competitive. Those talks were compromised when details about one of the countries negotiating — Malaysia — leaked through the press.

Here’s the deal: The State Department released its annual report on human trafficking last month. Earlier this month, Reuters, citing more than a “dozen sources in Washington and foreign capitals,” reported senior political staff at State overruled the department’s human rights experts on Malaysia, who gave the country the lowest possible ranking on human trafficking in the 2014 report. Senior staff upgraded Malaysia’s human trafficking record in 2015, according to Reuters. This fueled speculation that State was trying to bolster Malaysia in the TPP negotiations.

There have been other leaks, and according to FP’s John Hudson, Secretary of State John Kerry is none too pleased. On Monday, Kerry admonished staff to keep a lid on internal deliberations or find a new place to work.

Apparently the message didn’t take. News of Kerry’s scolding was leaked to Hudson.

Be careful what you wish for. Some senior officials are expressing a bit of buyer’s remorse over the deal with Turkey to let U.S. fighter jets use the air base at Incirlik, the Wall Street Journal’s Dion Nissenbaum and Ayla Albayrak report. Ever since the agreement was announced, Turkey has been pounding Kurdish militants in Syria, which it views as a significant threat. But attacks against the Islamic State have been noticeably rare. That’s led some anonymous officials to say Turkey is using the agreement as a fig leaf to pursue its agenda against Kurdish militants at the expense of putting skin in the game against Islamic State.

TGIF, everyone. SitRep chief Paul McLeary will be back in your inbox Monday morning. Please direct any tips, notes, or otherwise interesting bits of information to paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com, or get social with him and Adam on Twitter: @paulmcleary or @arawnsley. It’s been a pleasure filling in.

Gitmo

After the Daily Beast reported on the White House’s growing displeasure at Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s hesitance to authorize the transfer of prisoners cleared for release in Guantánamo Bay prison, the Guardian writes that the Pentagon is holding up the transfer of UK permanent resident Shaker Aamer. Carter’s resistance to Aamer’s release comes despite White House pressure and a U.S. agreement with British diplomats to release him.

Russia

Kerry is protesting Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani’s furtive visit to Moscow in July, raising the issue with his counterpart Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Suleimani is the subject of U.N. sanctions that ban countries from allowing the special operations chief to travel abroad. The State Department released a statement saying it had also referred the matter to the U.N. Security Council.

Russia managed to take home the most gold in the Sochi Winter Olympics last year, and now it’s a virtual lock for a repeat performance in this summer’s war Olympics. For the past two weeks, Russia has been holding the first-ever International Army games, in which countries like China and India have traveled to Moscow to compete in events from tank biathlons to obstacle courses for reconnaissance scouts. The games are like real war, only without all the death. As has happened before in history, Russia’s home field advantage has paid off.

Al Qaeda

After an extended absence from public view, al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has made a public appearance in the form of an audio recording posted to the Internet. In the tape, Zawahiri pledges his allegiance to deceased Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar’s successor Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour. The issue of Omar’s succession is an important one for Zawahiri. Mansour’s appointment has sowed division within the Taliban movement, with some seeing him as a proxy for the Pakistan’s interests. Al Qaeda has asserted that Omar was the rightful leader of the jihadist movement. But their rivals in Islamic State, which has grown to eclipse the group in strength and influence, dispute the claims, holding out their own Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as the rightful leader of jihadists around the world.

Japan

The day before the 70th anniversary of his country’s surrender to Allied forces in World War II, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed remorse for his country’s actions while looking ahead to the future. “I bow my head deeply before the souls of all those who perished both at home and abroad. I express my feelings or profound grief and my eternal, sincere condolences,” Abe said. “We must not let our children, grandchildren, and even further generations to come, who have nothing to do with that war, be predestined to apologize.” His comments are being closely monitored by South Korea and China, two countries that suffered under Japan’s imperialism. They also come as Tokyo sheds its post-World War II pacifism.

North Korea

North Korea’s relationship with its neighbor to the south is growing even more poisonous. On Wednesday, Pyongyang’s state TV mouthpiece KCNA broadcast footage of its troops using what appeared to be a picture of South Korean President Park Geun-hye for target practice. Earlier this week, South Korean officials announced they would resume propaganda broadcasts along the DMZ after two soldiers were injured stepping on North Korean landmines.

Air Force

The Federation of American Scientists flagged new Air Force guidelines regulating contact with officials from the Chinese military. As the guidance states, the Pentagon has been keen to develop closer military-to-military ties with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), hoping some relationship-building can head off or resolve conflicts as China’s armed forces become more active in the Asia-Pacific region. Much as the Air Force would like to roll out the red carpet for some Chinese military officials, the guidelines make clear that there are areas still too sensitive for contacts, including weapons of mass destruction, military space operations, technology transfers, and matters related to surveillance and reconnaissance, among others.

Kuwait

Reuters reports that Kuwait has uncovered a massive arms cache, which Kuwaiti authorities say three suspects allegedly linked to Hezbollah smuggled across the border from Iraq. The three men were arrested and confessed to belonging to a terrorist group, according to Kuwait’s interior ministry.  

Ukraine

Ukraine’s border “wall” is not looking like it’s going to be especially effective at keeping Russia out of the country. The quarter-billion dollar project — a mixture of anti-tank ditches, barbed wire fences, and surveillance gear — kicked off after Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. But since then, Ukraine’s faltering wartime economy has starved the project of funds, paring the project down from a planned billion dollar enterprise down to a $250 million one with difficulties paying contractors on time.

Who’s where when

9:45 a.m. Kerry will preside over a flag raising ceremony at the U.S. Embassy in Havana, Cuba, to mark the reopening of the facility for the first time in more than five decades.

10 a.m. Gen. Ray Odierno hands over responsibility to Gen. Mark Milley, who will become the 39th Army Chief of Staff at a turnover ceremony at Fort Myer in Arlington, Va. Carter, Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey will be in attendance. A retirement ceremony for Odierno will follow.

August 15, 2 p.m. U.S. Marine Forces Reserve, U.S. Navy Reserve, and the City of Chattanooga will hold a memorial service for the five service members killed in the July 16 attack on a Naval Reserve facility. Carter and Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus will attend, alongside Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam, Tennessee Sens. Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker, and City of Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke.